Turkey Billet Rises $30/t as Gulf Prices Fall $34/t

Regional square billet markets moved in different directions in September 2026. Turkish billet prices rose by $30/t to $575/t EXW, while Gulf quotations fell by $34/t to $501/t CFR and Tangshan prices eased to $444/t. Black Sea quotations increased, but remained nominal because regular physical exports were not taking place.

Regional square billet markets showed mixed price trends in September, with gains in Turkey and nominal Black Sea quotations contrasting with declines in China and the Persian Gulf.

Market momentum weakened as the month progressed. Early September was characterised by expectations of stronger Asian demand and higher scrap and steelmaking raw-material costs, but sentiment deteriorated by mid-month and trading activity slowed sharply ahead of China's extended holiday period.

By the end of September, most markets had shifted toward stagnation rather than establishing a clear global direction.

Turkey Billet Rises to $575/t EXW

Turkey recorded the strongest reported increase among the major billet markets tracked during September.

Average square billet prices increased by $30/t during the month to $575/t EXW.

Prices moved higher during the first half of September as scrap and rebar costs increased, sentiment in China initially improved and near-term billet availability remained relatively limited.

Higher finished-steel prices also allowed Turkish billet producers to seek higher offer levels, while imported material from Asia was available only intermittently.

By September 23, however, activity in both the domestic and import markets had slowed substantially as rebar trading weakened and buyers adopted a more cautious position.

Rebar and Scrap Costs Support Turkish Billet

Scrap and rebar pricing remained important supports for Turkey's billet market during the month.

Kardemir raised its rebar price by approximately $20/t, helping to offset higher freight costs and maintain the economic viability of some imported billet offers.

Turkish billet production also edged higher during the first eight months of the year.

According to Turkish Steel Producers' Association data, billet output reached approximately 15.88 million tonnes in January-August 2026, up 0.7% year over year.

Black Sea Quotations Rise, but Remain Nominal

Russian billet quotations in the Black Sea region moved higher during the first half of September.

Average Black Sea FOB indications increased by $11/t to $470/t.

The quotation needs to be treated cautiously, however, because the source report said regular physical exports from the Black Sea were effectively unavailable because of security and logistical constraints.

Russian suppliers have increasingly redirected cargoes through Baltic and Far Eastern ports and shifted commercial discussions away from FOB Novorossiysk toward CFR sales into Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa and Asia.

Moving material through the Baltic increases both transport costs and delivery times, while competition for rail and port capacity has added further logistical pressure.

Chinese Billet Trade Into ASEAN Stagnates

Chinese billet export activity into Southeast Asia remained subdued through much of September.

Offers for Chinese 3sp 150 mm billet ranged from approximately $465–478/t FOB during the month and remained above $470/t toward the end of September.

A gap persisted between sellers and buyers. Chinese mills resisted deeper discounts because steelmaking costs remained high, while overseas buyers were reluctant to accept higher prices amid weak downstream demand and softer steel-market sentiment.

Chinese exporters largely withdrew from active Southeast Asian negotiations at the end of September ahead of the National Day Golden Week holiday through October 7.

Weak ASEAN Demand Limits Import Buying

The source report cited weak final steel demand across parts of Southeast Asia as an important restraint on billet imports.

Pressure on re-roller margins, weaker rebar prices and currency conditions reduced buyers' willingness to accept higher billet offers.

The report also cited temporary regional supply issues, including a September incident at Formosa Ha Tinh Steel in Vietnam and operating constraints at Indonesia's Dexin Steel, as factors affecting short-term supply expectations and shipment schedules.

Formosa Ha Tinh's blast furnace No. 1 was temporarily stopped following a September 4 hot-blast stove incident but returned to stable operation on September 8 after repairs.

Tangshan Billet Falls $4/t in September

China's domestic billet market weakened during September amid subdued trading and rising inventories.

According to Kallanish data cited by GMK Center, average square billet prices in Tangshan declined by $4/t during September to $444/t.

Billet supply increased as some mills sought to generate cash ahead of the holiday period by selling semi-finished products rather than processing more material into finished steel.

At the same time, weak demand from re-rollers and rising billet inventories weighed on market sentiment.

High finished-steel inventories also caused some rolling mills to operate intermittently or suspend production.

Gulf Billet Drops $34/t to $501/t CFR

The Persian Gulf recorded the largest reported price decline among the major markets covered in the September review.

Kallanish assessed average billet pricing in the region at $501/t CFR at the end of September, down $34/t during the month.

The decline followed a $28/t increase in August, highlighting the volatility that has characterised the Gulf billet market.

Geopolitical uncertainty, freight conditions, billet availability and alternative supply routes have continued to influence regional pricing.

Updated NBU Billet Forecast Puts 2026 at $494/t FOB Ukraine

The original report also referenced a National Bank of Ukraine steel billet price assumption, but a more recent NBU forecast has since superseded the figure cited in the source.

The latest reported NBU assumptions put the average 2026 steel billet price at approximately $494/t FOB Ukraine, up 6.3% year over year.

The NBU expects the average to rise further to $510.4/t in 2027, an increase of 3.3%, and to $518/t in 2028, up another 1.5%.

September Ends Without a Unified Global Direction

The September market showed that billet pricing remained strongly regional.

Turkey's domestic market strengthened alongside higher scrap and rebar prices, while China and the Gulf weakened as demand and buyer sentiment softened.

Russian Black Sea quotations moved higher, but the absence of regular physical exports limits the analytical value of comparing those nominal FOB numbers directly with actively traded regional markets.

In Southeast Asia, Chinese exporters and import buyers remained separated by a price gap that neither side was willing to close before China's holiday period.

The result was a market characterised more by regional divergence and reduced trading activity than by a broad-based global billet trend.

Primary market sources: GMK Center; Kallanish.

Turkey production data: Turkish Steel Producers' Association, as reported by SteelOrbis.

Additional context: National Bank of Ukraine; SEAISI.