China's HRC exports slide 14% on year in September

China's exports of carbon steel (non-alloy) hot-rolled coil (HRC) in September fell 14.1% on year to 1.31 million tonnes, according to the latest data from China's General Administration of Customs (GACC). The September fall reversed the growth seen in August when the country's HRC exports jumped 12.6% to reach 1.52 million tonnes, as Mysteel Global had reported.

Last month's result took the total volume of carbon steel HRC China shipped abroad during January-September just 10.93 million tonnes, lower by 25.4% on year, the GACC data showed.

Notably, Pakistan continued to rank first in China's HRC export destinations last month, with exports to the country soaring by 58.6% on year to 269,404 tonnes, the highest for any month so far this year.

China's cumulative HRC exports to Pakistan during the first nine months amounted to 1.6 million tonnes, up 26.5% on year, the GACC data show.

Pakistan's large purchases of Chinese hot coils reflect the fact that while the country hosts many firms supplying cold rolled and coated coils and sheets, it has no HRC capacity to speak of.

A recent report by Pakistan Credit Rating Agency pointed out that Pakistan's major CRC producers – led by Hadeed Pakistan, International Steels Limited and Aisha Steel Mills Limited – host installed CRC capacity of nearly 2 million tonnes/year and yet are dependent on importing hot coil feeds mostly from China and Japan, with some recently shipped from Vietnam.

The case is similar for Nigeria, where effective HRC production capacity is close to zero on a marketable large-scale basis, despite the country's much larger nominal steelmaking capacity.

Nigeria is currently developing several steel mill projects including the Chinese-backed Stellar Steel project in Ogun State in southwestern Nigeria (earlier reports described it as an HRC project), as well as Premium Steel & Mines Limited's revival of the former Delta Steel Company, an integrated steel complex in Delta State, southern Nigeria.

However, whether these projects' final product mixes include HRC remain uncertain, and the country's dependency on imported HRCs including those from China will not fade in the short run, Mysteel Global understood.

In contrast, Vietnam, China's largest HRC export destination in 2025, saw the country drop out of the Top Ten destinations for last month, with shipments of China-origin hot coil reaching only 35,566 tonnes in September, down by a whopping 88.2% on year, Mysteel Global noted.

Looking at China's HRC exports to Vietnam by month, the downtrend is clearer. China's cumulative HRC export volume to Vietnam totaled 964,885 tonnes, lower by a sharp 65.7% on year, GACC data showed.

One reason for the drop in Chinese hot coils sailing to Vietnam is that in July last year, Vietnam levied anti-dumping duties of between 23.10% and 27.83% on Chinese HRC products with a width of no more than 1,880mm and a thickness range of 1.2-25.4mm, as Mysteel Global reported. The penalties will remain in force for five years.

Then in April this year, Hanoi imposed a provisional anti-circumvention duty of 27.83% on imports of HRC from China in widths from 1,880 mm to 2,300 mm and from 1.2 mm to 25.4 mm thick, after the Vietnamese authorities determined that the wide-width China-origin HRC had circumvented the existing AD duties on the narrower coils.

As the imposition of the tariff penalties has made imported Chinese hot coil less competitive in the Vietnamese market, other suppliers such as India, Indonesia and Taiwan quickly filled the gap, market sources suggested.

The latest data from Mysteel Vietnam showed that over January-August, Vietnam's HRC imports slumped 23% on year to 3.71 million tonnes. Imports from China more than halved, although China remained Vietnam's largest hot coil supplier.

On the other hand, Vietnam's HRC imports from India reached 821,884 tonnes during the first eight months this year, surging from near zero in the same period last year, making India Vietnam's second largest HRC supplier after China.

Vietnam's imports of Indonesian HRC over January-August also rocketed by 268.7% on year to 421,235 tonnes,

Source:Mysteel Global