Global Billet Prices Diverge as Turkey, China Weaken

Global square billet markets moved in different directions during October, with prices falling in Turkey and China while Gulf CFR quotations rebounded sharply amid disrupted supply flows and higher logistics costs.

MONTREAL (SteelPrices): October did not produce one clear direction for the global billet market.

Prices weakened in China and Turkey as demand remained soft, while Gulf import quotations moved higher as logistics problems and supply constraints pushed up delivered costs.

The result was a market increasingly shaped by local conditions rather than one global price trend.

Turkey Billet Prices Fall Despite Tight Import Supply

Average square billet prices in Turkey fell by $13 per tonne during October to approximately $563/t ex-works, according to Kallanish data cited by GMK Center.

Kardemir raised domestic billet offers to $565–575/t EXW, while other Turkish producers were reported offering material above $570/t EXW.

Imported Russian billet was reportedly offered at $540–550/t CFR, although buyer counter-offers remained much lower at around $515/t CFR.

The gap shows how difficult negotiations had become: domestic material remained comparatively expensive, while buyers were unwilling to accept imported offers at suppliers' requested levels.

China Becomes Turkey's Largest Billet Supplier

Turkey imported 287,659 tonnes of billet and bloom in September, down 16.6% year over year but up 1% from August, according to preliminary Turkish Statistical Institute data.

China supplied 142,007 tonnes during the month, up 29.3% year over year. Malaysia supplied 52,970 tonnes and Vietnam 49,825 tonnes.

No Russian billet or bloom arrivals were recorded in September, compared with 55,197 tonnes a year earlier.

For January-September, Turkish imports nevertheless increased 11.8% year over year to 3.62 million tonnes.

China narrowly overtook Russia as Turkey's largest supplier over the nine-month period, shipping 942,362 tonnes compared with 935,335 tonnes from Russia.

ASEAN Billet Buyers Remain Cautious

Business sentiment across Southeast Asian billet markets remained generally weak during October.

Buyers delayed purchases or pushed for discounts, while rolling mills reduced import activity.

In Northern and Eastern China, export prices for 3SP 150 mm billet fell from $465–473/t FOB earlier in the month to around $455–460/t FOB.

In the Philippines, 5SP/Q275 billet declined from approximately $492–495/t CFR Manila to $487–488/t.

Indonesian 5SP billet was reported at $483–487/t CFR Jakarta, while 3SP material was around $478/t. Dexin's export price fell to approximately $470/t FOB from $475/t.

Vietnamese imports from Thailand and Indonesia were reported at around $490/t CFR, compared with domestic Vietnamese billet prices of $510–520/t CPT.

Russian suppliers reportedly concluded business in the region at $491–497/t CFR.

China's Domestic Billet Market Weakens

Average square billet prices in Tangshan fell by $10/t during October to approximately $434/t, according to Kallanish.

The market remained under pressure from weak end-user demand, falling rebar futures and higher inventories.

Tangshan billet inventories increased from approximately 1.39 million tonnes after China's October holidays to 1.46 million tonnes at the beginning of November.

Rolling mills were also reported operating at losses of around Yuan 30–40/t, prompting some producers to reduce operations and raw-material purchases.

At the same time, lower coke prices were reducing production costs, removing some of the cost support that had previously helped finished and semi-finished steel prices.

Gulf Prices Rise $34/T Despite Weak Demand

The Persian Gulf moved in the opposite direction.

Average regional billet quotations rose by $34/t during October to approximately $535/t CFR, according to Kallanish data cited by GMK Center.

The increase followed a $34/t decline in September.

The source report attributed the October rebound partly to delays in seaborne imports, higher freight and insurance costs and greater reliance by UAE rolling mills on local and Omani billet supplies.

However, downstream conditions were still weak. Lower rebar prices and limited liquidity continued to restrict buying activity, meaning the higher billet quotations did not necessarily reflect stronger end-user demand.

Russian Supply Routes Remain Difficult

GMK Center reported that Russian billet suppliers faced higher freight costs, elevated risk premiums and disruptions to traditional Black Sea shipment routes during October.

The report said some exporters were redirecting volumes through Baltic ports including St. Petersburg and Ust-Luga, increasing freight costs and delivery risks.

It also referred to billet shipments entering some markets through third countries and possibly originating in Iran.

SteelPrices verification note: These logistics and origin claims come from the source market reporting. SteelPrices could not independently confirm the precise origin of material described as moving through third countries, so those flows should not be treated as verified origin data.

What Comes Next?

The near-term billet market still looks difficult for sellers in China and much of Southeast Asia because buyer counter-offers remain low and downstream rebar demand is weak.

In Turkey, restricted access to some traditional import supply may keep domestic billet prices comparatively firm even if rebar demand remains subdued.

The Gulf market is different again: higher delivered costs can support CFR billet prices, but weak downstream demand may limit how far those increases can continue.

The October market therefore reinforces an important point for billet buyers: regional pricing must be read together with freight, delivery basis, raw-material costs and local downstream demand.

GMK Center also cited a National Bank of Ukraine forecast placing the average 2026 billet price at $487.7/t FOB Ukraine, up 4.9% year over year, followed by $510.4/t in 2027 and $518/t in 2028.

Source: GMK Center, citing Kallanish and TÜ?K market and trade data.

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