Average HMS 1&2 scrap prices in Turkey fell by $4/t in October

Price dynamics in regional scrap metal markets in October were mostly downward. On average, quotations fell by $3–7 per tonne.

Turkey

Market dynamics changed sharply during October. At the beginning of the month, quotations for deep-sea HMS 1&2 (80:20) scrap cargoes rose to $395–398/t CFR Turkey, while US exporters targeted levels above $400–403/t CFR. By mid-October, weak rebar sales and pressure from Turkish steelmakers had pushed European scrap prices down to a year low of $380–383.5/t CFR. However, at the end of October and the beginning of November, the market turned sharply upwards: prices for EU cargoes rose to $398–401/t CFR, Baltic scrap rose to $397.5–402/t CFR, and US material reached $407/t CFR. On average, HMS 1&2 80:20 scrap quotations fell by $4 in October, to $397/t CFR Turkey.

The influencing factors include the following:

1. Monetary conditions. Commercial lending rates in Turkey of 49%, with the country’s central bank key rate at 37%, forced mills to purchase raw materials strictly on a just-in-time basis.
2. Transport crisis in Europe. Drought and low water levels on the Rhine and Danube paralysed barge shipments in Germany. Combined with a shortage of vessels and high freight rates (around $49–50/t from Rotterdam to the Marmara region), this sharply increased delivery costs.
3. Euro and lira volatility. Fluctuations in the EUR/USD exchange rate (from 1.113 to 1.125) prompted European sellers to keep dock prices no lower than €280–290/t. The weakening of the lira (to 49.20 TRY/USD) and liquidity problems held back purchases.
4. Geopolitics. Incidents in the Black Sea region and the Strait of Hormuz led to higher insurance premiums.

According to TUIK, in September scrap imports to Turkey fell by 8.9% y/y, to 1.55 million tonnes, at an average price of $387/t. The largest supplier was the US (255,000 tonnes), followed by the UK (188,000 tonnes) and the Netherlands (183,000 tonnes). In January–September, total scrap imports to Turkey increased by 2.3% y/y, to 14.3 million tonnes.

Market sentiment is mixed. Exporters from the US and the EU are pushing for higher prices: due to the strong US domestic market (where prices are expected to rise by $20–30/t in November) and a structural scrap shortage, suppliers are asking for $410/t CFR. Turkish steelmakers, on the contrary, are resisting higher raw material prices due to negative margins and weak demand for rebar (priced at $595–625/t). In the short term, experts expect scrap prices to remain high due to logistics costs and a supply shortage.

European Union

In early October, the European scrap market was recovering from the summer lull, supported by Turkey: prices in the region rose by an average of €5–20/t. However, in the second half of the month, the trend changed sharply.

1. Germany and Austria. The German market remained relatively stable throughout the month (€290/t for grade 3 scrap, €300/t for E40), while prices in Austria rose by €10/t.
2. Italy. Prices fell sharply, by €10–15/t. By early November, E3 grade quotations had dropped to €300–310/t, E1 to €270–280/t, shredded E40 scrap to €320/t, while E8 traded in the range of €320–360/t.

In Germany, E3 grade scrap fell in price by $6 over the month, to $326/t Ex Works, while in Italy the same grade fell by $7, to $351/t.

The main negative factors for both countries were high electricity costs (around €60 per tonne of steel) and extremely weak demand for rolled products. In addition, the market was affected by the following factors:

1. Production shutdowns. Steel mills’ warehouses were overstocked with finished products, so companies began reducing shifts and halting production for several weeks. By the last week of October, mills had stopped accepting scrap from processors en masse.
2. Logistics crisis. In Germany, critically low water levels on the Rhine, Danube and Oder paralysed barge shipments. The unreliability of rail transport forced a mass shift to road haulage, which led to a sharp rise in trucking rates and diesel prices.
3. Alternative raw materials. The pig iron and DRI market is stagnating as mills seek to minimise inventories. Supplies of Brazilian pig iron are stable (FOB $440–450/t), while exports from Ukraine and Russia are effectively blocked.

According to Destatis, in January–August scrap exports from Germany remained stable at 5.18 million tonnes worth €2.4 billion (the main buyer was Italy, 1.1 million tonnes). Scrap imports to Germany increased by 8%, to 3 million tonnes worth €1.4 billion. The main long-term risk for the industry remains the EU’s plans to introduce restrictions on scrap exports to countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) from May 2027.

Sentiment in the EU market is generally negative. Mills are insisting on further price cuts and are planning large-scale Christmas shutdowns. In November, prices for imported scrap in Italy are expected to fall by at least €10/t, while stagnation is expected to continue in Germany. The only factor preventing a complete price collapse is the insufficient volume of scrap generation in the region.

USA

In October, the US scrap market showed divergent dynamics: domestic demand grew, while the export segment stagnated. Domestic scrap prices in the US rose sharply by $20–30/t (in Chicago, No. 1 scrap rose to $475–485/t, shredded scrap to $440–455/t) thanks to mill capacity utilisation of 80% and stable demand from the automotive industry and infrastructure projects. In early November, mills proposed raising prices by another $20–30/t.

The export segment (containerised scrap) stopped growing after two months of recovery due to weak demand in Asia, holidays and high freight rates. HMS 1&2 (80:20) quotations on the West Coast (Los Angeles) ranged from $325–335/t, and on the East Coast (New York) from $330–340/t. Sellers preferred to redirect volumes to the more profitable domestic market. At the same time, average HMS 1&2 80:20 scrap quotations in the US fell by $3, to $347/t on an East Coast delivery basis.

Domestic suppliers are optimistic. Due to the seasonal decline in scrap collection and steelmakers’ large order books, dealers expect a cumulative price increase of $20–50 per gross ton in Q4. Exporters, on the contrary, forecast that sluggish dynamics will continue until the end of the year due to the reluctance of Asian buyers.

China

On average in October, scrap quotations in China rose by $20, to $380/t CFR. At the same time, domestic scrap prices in China declined during the month.

The key factors putting pressure on the market were:

1. Oversupply. Raw material inflows to the market are growing, creating a supply surplus.
2. Weak steel demand. Deteriorating market conditions and lower prices for rolled products are forcing steel mills to cut scrap purchases.
3. Cheaper commodities. The correction in prices for other types of steelmaking raw materials is putting additional downward pressure on the market.

As a result, the combination of growing scrap volumes, falling prices for finished products and a general weakening of demand from steelmakers led to a gradual downward trend across the entire chain.