Global prices for hot-rolled coil came under pressure in most regions in July

In July 2025, the global hot-rolled coil market continued to show different trends in key regions. The European market remained sluggish due to oversupply and weak demand, while prices in the US declined amid a seasonal lull and buyer caution. At the same time, China recorded significant price increases, triggered by market rumors and declining inventories, although real demand remained subdued.

EU

In July 2025, the European hot-rolled coil market remained sluggish, with continued price pressure amid weak demand and oversupply. In Western Europe, prices fell by 5.2% (June 27–August 1, 2025) to €545/t ex-works, and in Italy by 3.2% to €527.5/t, with the prospect of further declines in August. At the same time, HRC imports to Southern Europe rose by 4.7% to €480/t CIF, although a correction is expected.

Demand remained sluggish: seasonal downtime, weak activity in construction and the automotive industry, short delivery times. Service centers made selective purchases, focusing on attractive import offers from Asia, Turkey, and North Africa. Some players made advance purchases in preparation for a possible price reversal in the fall.

Despite low market activity, ArcelorMittal raised prices twice, to €610/t delivered in Northern Europe. This sent a signal to the market, although most buyers remain skeptical about a real recovery. The main expectations are related to new EU trade measures, CBAM, and lower rates, which could boost demand in Q4.

USA

The US hot-rolled coil market continued to see a gradual decline in prices in July, down 1.7% MoM to $970/t. Base offers from key producers, including Nucor, fell twice during the month to $890 per short ton. Trading activity remained sluggish and delivery times were short (3–5 weeks), indicating weak order intake.

The main reason for the market stagnation remained the seasonal summer pause. Most distributors reported low demand, project delays due to high costs, and a wait-and-see attitude among customers. Although some players are optimistic about the second half of the year, there has been no real recovery in orders yet.

Some large deals were even recorded below market estimates – up to $835/short ton. However, most participants believe that the bottom will be reached in August-September. A price review is expected in September-October, when the market emerges from its summer slump and steel companies try to strengthen their positions amid an expected increase in demand from infrastructure and energy projects.

China

The Chinese hot-rolled coil market saw a significant price increase of 7.1% month-on-month to $490/ton, which was the result of a number of factors and market participant feedback. The initial impetus was caused by rumors of the resumption of the program to rebuild poor areas, which pushed both futures and spot prices to three-month highs. However, most players remained skeptical due to doubts about the implementation of such large-scale projects without state budget support.

Despite the price increase, real consumer demand remained subdued, with weekly consumption continuing to decline. This was partly due to end users’ resistance to rapid price jumps. At the same time, declining inventories and capacity constraints created a positive backdrop for further growth.

Prices also rose in the export market, but buyers remained cautious, waiting for stabilization. The end of July was marked by a slight correction – after the long-awaited political meeting, prices for steel and related raw materials, in particular coking coal, cooled down. As a result, HRC quotations on the Shanghai Stock Exchange declined and spot market sales slowed.

The market outlook remains dependent on further government investment in construction and infrastructure, as well as on the ability of exporters to maintain competitiveness in the global market.