Exporters plan to raise prices by $2–3 on the Black Sea market for billets

The global square billet market saw mixed trends in October. Negative sentiment prevailed during the first half of the month due to the weak market in China, although the situation in Turkey improved. In the second half of October, most regional billet markets saw a cautious upward trend driven by improved sentiment in Asia, but its sustainability remained in question.

On the Black Sea square billet market (Black Sea FOB basis), average quotations in October fell by $5 to $433/t. At the same time, according to BigMint, billet exporters are planning to raise prices by $2–3 to $443–447/t (Black Sea FOB) following the strengthening of the ruble and the rise in the cost of semi-finished products from China.

Recent changes in Turkey’s domestic processing regime (DIR), which require at least 25% of the raw materials/semi-finished products needed for production to be purchased on the domestic market, have significantly affected demand for imported billets.

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), Turkey imported 327,900 tonnes of billets in September (down 13% y-o-y) at an average price of $484/tonne. The structure of supplies changed that month: China and Algeria strengthened their positions, while Russia, Malaysia, and Ukraine lost theirs. Imports of billets from China doubled in September to 110 thousand tons, reaching 34% of total supplies. At the same time, in the first nine months of 2025, imports of billets to Turkey increased by 48% y/y – to 3.13 million tons, with Asian suppliers capturing two-thirds of the market. Ukraine accounted for 5% of the market with 153,000 tons.

Following changes in the DIR in Turkey, interest in local billets has grown. At the end of September, local producers increased billet production by 8.6% y-o-y to 2 million tons, and by 4.2% y/y – to 17.8 million tons in the first nine months of this year. According to Kallanish, the Kardemir plant sold 60,000 tons of billets at a price of $500/ton (grade S235JR) and $510/ton (grade B420) in a tender within a few hours, which is $8 more than at the September auction. Overall, in October, the price of square billets on Turkey Ex-Works terms rose by an average of $5 to $513/t.

In mid-October, the billet market in Tangshan (China) saw low activity amid weak sales of finished products by rollers, production suspensions due to environmental restrictions, and a decline in steel futures. Towards the end of the month, billet prices began to decline and market sentiment shifted in the opposite direction. At the end of the period, positive sentiment prevailed due to production controls, active sales of finished products, and a recovery in futures.

During the month, some producers suspended production due to environmental restrictions and low sales of finished products, which supported billet prices. In addition, the second round of price increases for domestically produced coke came into effect, which also supported price growth. Overall, billet prices in Tangshan rose by $5 to $419/t in October. BigMint notes that demand in the Chinese construction sector remains weak, limiting further price growth.

Bids for billets in the Persian Gulf countries remained stable in September. According to Kallanish, average billet prices within the Gulf Cooperation Council ranged from $445 to $450/t (CFR) in October. Average quotations in Saudi Arabia were at $477–482/t (Ex-Works) amid continued shortages of products and scrap in the country. At the same time, in Indonesia, quotations in September fell by $14 to $448/t (CFR).

Average quotations for square billets at the end of October compared to the end of the previous month in Italy (on an Ex-Works basis) fell by $16 to $562/t, although in the first half of the month there was an increase to $582/t.

The situation on the global square billet market in September was generally quite stable with negative dynamics. In the second ten days of the month, prices practically stabilized, and sentiment improved slightly. At the end of the period, there were no significant changes in prices or sentiment, but sales with discounts intensified. Prices for square billets in a number of regional markets fell by an average of $2–4/t in September, while in others they rose by $3–8/t.

As previously reported, according to estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), average prices for steel billets may fall by 7.5% y/y – to $466.4 per tonne (FOB Ukraine) by the end of 2025. The forecast prices for 2026 and 2027 are $490.3/t (+5.1% y/y) and $501.1/t (+2.2% y/y), respectively (FOB Ukraine).

Courtesy : https://gmk.center/