Prices for rebar showed mixed dynamics at the beginning of the year

Global rebar prices at the beginning of 2026 showed mixed dynamics depending on the market. In particular, the European and US markets saw a 2-5% increase in prices, while Turkey and China saw a 0.4-2% decline.

Turkey

In January 2026, the Turkish rebar market remained under pressure from weak demand and high production costs. Prices fell by 0.4% during the month and by 0.7% between the end of December 2025 and the beginning of February 2026, to $557.5/t FOB. At the same time, the current level is 1.2% higher than the average for 2025.

The key negative factor remained the consistently high prices for imported scrap metal. Turkish mills, which are heavily dependent on supplies from the US and the EU, are forced to operate with weak or negative margins due to lower export prices and higher production costs. This has significantly undermined Turkey’s competitiveness compared to North African suppliers, who have been actively capturing volumes in the Balkans and other regions traditionally served by Turkey.

Export demand remained unstable throughout the month. Sales were made in small batches to Africa, Georgia, Cyprus, Chile, and Peru, while interest from the EU was limited due to the introduction of CBAM and buyer caution. In the domestic market, weak demand forced producers to adjust prices, and aggressive sales by individual players exacerbated price volatility. At the same time, Kardemir cut prices twice, stimulating demand through deferred payments.

In the short term, the market will remain unstable. High scrap prices and the approach of Ramadan will hold back demand recovery, while a potential upturn in exports to the US may partially support producers. A significant improvement in market conditions is not expected until the second half of 2026.

EU

In the EU, rebar prices rose last month. In Northern Europe, the increase was 3.4% to €615/t ex-works, and in Italy, it was 1.8% to €565/t ex-works. Currently, Italian steelmakers’ offers are 3.3% higher than the average for 2025, while Northern European offers are 1.3% lower.

The beginning of the month was sluggish due to the extended holiday break, cold weather, and low activity in construction. Producers tried to raise prices, but the market reacted cautiously to these moves. The key growth factor was costs: scrap prices rose by €10-15/t in most EU countries and even more in some regions. Additional pressure came from high electricity and gas prices, which had a particularly painful impact on electric steel mills.

In Northern and Central Europe, attempts to import Italian rebar were limited by a sharp increase in logistics costs: road and rail transport became 20-50% more expensive, negating the price difference. In France and Germany, buyers agreed only to minimal increases, while manufacturers insisted on adjustments to compensate for rising costs. At the end of the month, the wave of announced increases was partially implemented, but the market remained fragile and margins low.

In February-March, prices may rise slowly due to the seasonal revival of construction and further increases in raw material prices. At the same time, weak demand and buyer resistance will limit growth potential, keeping the market highly volatile.

USA

On the US market, rebar prices showed the strongest growth, rising 5.5% to $1058.2/t ex-works. The average price in 2025 was $910.9/t (+16.2%).

The beginning of the month was marked by seasonally weak demand due to the holiday period, but the market had a clear upward trend. The key driver was the expectation and subsequent realization of a sharp rise in scrap prices: in January, quotations jumped by $30/t (short ton), and at the end of the month, there were signs of further increases in February. Against this backdrop, leading US mills announced a $30/t (short ton) increase in rebar prices, which was largely accepted by the market.

Limited domestic supply, extended delivery times, and weak imports provided additional support to prices. Import flows of rebar remained weak due to Section 232 tariffs, anti-dumping duties, and uncertainty surrounding trade investigations. This significantly reduced competitive pressure from external suppliers. At the same time, demand was uneven. Residential construction remained sluggish, while infrastructure projects, data centers, and energy partially supported consumption.

In the short term, the market is likely to remain at a consistently high price level with moderate potential for further growth. Rising scrap prices and limited imports will form the lower price limit, while weak demand dynamics will restrain sharp price jumps.

China

In China, rebar prices fell by 2.1% in January and by 0.8% between the end of December 2025 and February 6, 2026, to $443.9/t FOT Warehouse. At the same time, quotations remain 2.1% higher than the average level for 2025.

At the beginning of the month, the market refrained from a sharp decline in prices, despite a decrease in manufacturers’ inventories. The decisive factor was the accumulation of material in the warehouses of traders and distributors, which reflected not a recovery in end demand, but a redistribution of products in the supply chain.

Demand remained weak throughout January. Low temperatures led to a halt in construction work in northern regions, while in central and southern China, activity was limited to isolated projects. In the second half of the month, pressure intensified due to the seasonal slowdown and the approach of the Lunar New Year, which led to an increase in inventories and an acceleration in price declines.

Supply remained relatively stable. Full-cycle steel mills resumed production after scheduled maintenance, while electric arc furnace mills began to reduce capacity utilization only at the end of the month. At the same time, high raw material costs, particularly the rise in coke prices at the end of January, mitigated the negative price dynamics.

In February, the market is likely to remain under moderate pressure due to the holiday break and weak demand. At the same time, reduced production and consistently high raw material costs may limit further price declines until construction activity resumes in the spring.

Courtesy : https://gmk.center/en