Due to the rainy season, the tight supply of cast iron in Brazil may persist until May

Average prices in most regional pig iron markets rose by $10–25/t in March. The increase in prices was partly driven by limited supply due to weather conditions in Brazil and rising prices on the global scrap market. At the same time, the pig iron market in Turkey is under pressure due to rising logistics costs and weak demand.

Brazil

According to the Brazilian Steel Manufacturers Association (IAB), statistics for the Brazilian pig iron market show mixed trends. On the one hand, pig iron production in February amounted to nearly 2 million tons, which is 8.8% less than in January. In the first two months of 2026, the figure decreased by 2% year-on-year to 4.16 million tons. At the same time, exports in February fell by 7.3% month-over-month to 377,800 tons, following a 49% month-over-month increase in January. In the first two months of the year, the figure rose by 55% year-over-year, reaching 782,000 tons.

According to Kallanish, prices for Brazilian pig iron rose by $25 in March to $455/ton on FOB terms (for May shipments). As reported by Platts, during the last week of March, prices in the southeastern part of the country averaged $475/ton (FOB) ahead of the Easter holidays. However, further growth remains uncertain: buyers are resisting any price increases.

The rise in prices is traditionally driven by the rainy season, which forces local producers to halt operations for several weeks. Brazilian producers are analyzing market conditions and planning to resume production after the rainy season, taking into account rising freight rates. The supply shortage may persist until May. Rising demand from the U.S., a coal shortage, and higher prices on the global scrap market also contributed to the price increase.

Europe

European buyers, who had shown increased interest in Brazilian pig iron since the beginning of the year, have now adopted a wait-and-see approach. According to Kallanish, the factors holding back demand include a supply shortage, rising freight costs, and higher bunker fuel prices amid the conflict in the Persian Gulf.

The main suppliers of pig iron to the EU are currently Brazil and Ukraine. Prices for Ukrainian pig iron are approximately $480/t on a CFR basis, excluding CBAM fees ($46/t).

Black Sea market

Turkish steelmakers are taking a cautious approach to procurement amid low steel production margins, geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf, and a sharp rise in logistics costs. Average prices for pig iron (on a Black Sea FOB basis) rose by $15 in March, reaching $355/t. However, the price increase was observed in the second half of the month. At the end of March, Russian pig iron exporters are seeking to raise prices amid a significant increase in scrap prices, but rising freight rates are limiting price hikes on FOB terms.

Indicators for the Turkish pig iron market remain quite volatile. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), in February of this year, pig iron imports to Turkey fell by 25% MoM (in January, there was a 28% MoM increase), to 168,000 tons. Russia became the largest and practically the only supplier last month, delivering 164,000 tons of pig iron (+343% y/y) at an average price of $344/ton.

Amid volatility in pig iron imports, domestic production in Turkey surged. According to WorldSteel, output in February increased by 18.7% y/y – to 0.85 million tons. Over the first two months of this year, the figure rose by 19.4% y/y, reaching 1.8 million tons.

Other markets

Other regional markets also showed mixed trends. Domestic prices for pig iron in China (including 13% VAT) rose by $9 in March to $424/t.

According to Metallplace, prices for pig iron on the Indian market fell by $13 last month to $400/t, ending a two-month uptrend.

As previously reported, global pig iron production in January–February 2026 decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period in 2025, to 222.7 million tons. The largest pig iron-producing countries for this period were China — 137.7 million tons (–2.7% y/y), India — 26.45 million tons (+6.1% y/y), and Russia — 9.63 million tons (–3% y/y).