China Crude Steel Output Falls 2.9% Through September

China produced 724.77 million tonnes of crude steel in the first nine months of 2026, down 2.9% year over year, while September output edged 0.1% above the year-earlier level to 73.59 million tonnes, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

China's crude steel production totaled 73.59 million tonnes in September 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Output increased 0.1% from September 2025 but fell approximately 1.4% from August, when production totaled 74.61 million tonnes.

For the first nine months of 2026, crude steel production reached 724.77 million tonnes, down 2.9% year over year.

China Steel Production Decline Narrows Through September

The cumulative decline in crude steel production moderated slightly compared with the first eight months of the year.

NBS reported January-August crude steel output of 651.85 million tonnes, down 3.1% year over year.

After September, the cumulative decline narrowed to 2.9%, an improvement of 0.2 percentage points.

September Crude Steel Output Reaches 73.59 Million Tonnes

The September data therefore showed different trends across the production chain.

Crude steel was slightly higher than a year earlier, while pig iron and rolled-steel production remained below September 2025 levels.

Sequentially, rolled-steel output increased while crude steel and pig iron tonnage declined.

Daily Crude Steel Production Actually Increased in September

The monthly tonnage comparison requires additional context because August had 31 calendar days and September had 30.

Based on NBS monthly output:

• August: 74.61 million tonnes ÷ 31 days = approximately 2.41 million tonnes/day.
• September: 73.59 million tonnes ÷ 30 days = approximately 2.45 million tonnes/day.

That represents an approximately 1.9% month-over-month increase in the calculated daily crude steel production rate, despite the 1.4% decline in total monthly tonnage.

China's Manufacturing Sector Improved in September

The original market report cited weak demand from manufacturing sectors as a source of pressure on steel.

Broader official September indicators, however, show a more mixed picture.

China's manufacturing value added increased 6.0% year over year in September, according to NBS.

The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, returning to expansion territory, while the manufacturing production index reached 51.7 and the new-orders index stood at 50.5.

Several steel-using manufacturing categories also recorded growth in value added, including:

• Automotive manufacturing: +6.7% Y/Y.
• General equipment: +8.5%.
• Special equipment: +12.1%.
• Railway, ship and aerospace equipment: +11.7%.
• Electrical machinery: +8.1%.

Property and Investment Remain Major Steel-Demand Constraints

China's property sector continued to provide a much weaker demand signal.

Real-estate development investment fell 20.6% year over year during January-September.

Residential investment declined 20.5%, while new housing starts fell 24.9% and total floor space under construction decreased 12.8%.

Overall fixed-asset investment excluding rural households declined 7.2% year over year in January-September.

Infrastructure investment fell 4.2%, while manufacturing investment declined 2.1%.

The September construction business-activity PMI returned above 50 at 50.3, but the sector's new-orders index remained below the expansion threshold at 45.7.

China Steel Exports Remain Above 10 Million Tonnes

Exports continue to provide an important outlet for Chinese steel production.

China exported 10.492 million tonnes of finished steel in September, up 3.3% month over month and 0.3% year over year.

September was the fifth consecutive month in which finished-steel exports exceeded 10 million tonnes.

January-September exports totaled 85.641 million tonnes, down 2.6% year over year.

SteelPrices' full trade analysis is available here: China Steel Exports Rise 3.3% to 10.49M Tons .

Post-Holiday Steel Inventories Add to Market Pressure

The production figures also need to be viewed alongside China's inventory position entering October.

Mysteel reported inventories of five major carbon steel products held by traders rising 4.5% to 18.32 million tonnes during the October 1-7 National Day holiday.

Stocks held by surveyed steel mills increased a sharper 9.3% to 4.2 million tonnes.

HRC inventories rose 6.7% to 5.08 million tonnes, while rebar stocks increased 2.7% to 6.68 million tonnes.

See: China Steel Inventories Rise 4.5% During National Day Holiday .

China Produced 960.81 Million Tonnes of Crude Steel in 2025

The 2026 decline follows a significant production reduction last year.

China produced 960.81 million tonnes of crude steel in 2025, down 4.4% year over year and below 1 billion tonnes for the first time since 2018.

By contrast, NBS reported rolled-steel output of 1.446 billion tonnes in 2025, up 3.1%.

SteelPrices covered the full-year decline here: China Steel Production Fell to a Seven-Year Low in 2025 .

What Do China's September Steel Production Data Show?

China's September production data show stabilization rather than a sharp acceleration or collapse in steelmaking.

Crude steel was marginally higher year over year, and the calculated daily production rate increased from August despite lower total monthly tonnage.

At the same time, the first nine months of 2026 still show lower crude steel, pig iron and rolled-steel production compared with the corresponding period last year.

Domestic demand is also increasingly uneven. Manufacturing indicators improved in September, but property investment, construction orders and broader fixed investment remained weak.

Exports continue to absorb substantial volumes, while post-holiday inventories are testing the ability of the domestic market to absorb production.

Primary production source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Trade context: General Administration of Customs of China; CISA.

Additional market context: Mysteel Global.

Courtesy: GMK Center