China Steel Inventories Rise 4.5% During National Day Holiday
Chinese trader inventories of five major carbon steel products rose 4.5% from end-September to 18.32 million tonnes during the October 1-7 National Day holiday, while stocks held by surveyed steel mills increased a sharper 9.3% to 4.2 million tonnes, according to Mysteel.
- Trader inventories: Rose 4.5%, or 793,900 tonnes, to 18.32 million tonnes across Mysteel's 132-city survey.
- Mill inventories: Increased 9.3%, or 357,000 tonnes, to 4.2 million tonnes.
- Steel output: Combined production of the five surveyed products edged up 0.2% to 7.95 million tonnes.
- HRC stocks: Jumped 6.7% to 5.08 million tonnes.
- Rebar stocks: Increased 2.7% to 6.68 million tonnes.
- Post-holiday risk: Mysteel said traders remained cautious because weaker cost support and high inventories could pressure offers if demand fails to recover.
The holiday stock build is notable less for the 4.5% trader increase alone than for the broader supply-chain pattern. Mill inventories rose almost twice as fast at 9.3% while production of the five products remained essentially steady. That leaves the post-holiday market dependent on how quickly end-user demand absorbs material accumulated during the break. At the same time, the 18.32 million-tonne trader total remained slightly below the 18.5 million tonnes recorded on September 17, meaning the holiday buildup did not fully reverse the inventory drawdown seen earlier in September.
Retail inventories of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil (HRC), cold-rolled coil (CRC) and medium plate held by Chinese traders increased during the week-long National Day holiday from October 1 through October 7, 2026, according to Mysteel's latest survey.
Combined stocks held by traders in the 132 Chinese cities monitored by Mysteel reached 18.32 million tonnes as of October 7.
That represented an increase of 4.5%, or 793,900 tonnes, from end-September.
Mysteel attributed the accumulation to steady steel production combined with sharply reduced physical-market transactions while many traders and end users were away for the holiday.
China Trader Steel Stocks Reach 18.32 Million Tonnes
The five-product inventory total increased from an implied end-September level of approximately 17.53 million tonnes to 18.32 million tonnes by October 7.
| Inventory Measure | Oct. 7 Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Trader stocks — 132 cities | 18.32M tonnes | +4.5% / +793,900 t |
| Mill stocks | 4.20M tonnes | +9.3% / +357,000 t |
| Trader stocks — 35-city sample | 11.28M tonnes | +4.6% / +498,000 t |
Mill Steel Inventories Jump 9.3% as Production Holds Steady
Inventories also increased substantially at Chinese steel mills during the holiday.
Stocks of the five carbon steel products held by the steel enterprises in Mysteel's sample reached 4.2 million tonnes, up 9.3%, or 357,000 tonnes, from the end of September.
At the same time, combined output of the five products among the 137 Chinese steelmakers monitored by Mysteel totaled 7.95 million tonnes during October 1-7.
Production increased only 0.2%, or 17,500 tonnes, from the previous week.
HRC Stocks Rise 6.7% and Rebar Inventories Gain 2.7%
Inventories increased across all five products tracked in the survey.
Hot-rolled coil and rebar posted the largest increases by volume.
HRC inventories rose by 319,300 tonnes, or 6.7%, from end-September to 5.08 million tonnes on October 7.
Rebar inventories increased by 175,300 tonnes, or 2.7%, to 6.68 million tonnes.
| Product | Oct. 7 Inventory | Change From End-Sept. |
|---|---|---|
| Hot-rolled coil | 5.08M tonnes | +6.7% / +319,300 t |
| Rebar | 6.68M tonnes | +2.7% / +175,300 t |
Why Did China Steel Inventories Rise During the Holiday?
The inventory increase reflected an unusual combination of continued steel production and sharply reduced trading activity.
Mills continued producing during the holiday, but physical-market transactions slowed because many traders, buyers and end users were away from the market.
Material therefore accumulated at both mills and commercial warehouses.
This pattern differs from the inventory drawdown observed earlier in September. In Mysteel's September 17 survey, trader stocks of the same five products across the same 132-city sample had fallen to 18.5 million tonnes as inventory reductions accelerated.
For additional context, see SteelPrices' earlier report: China's Retail Steel Stock Decline Accelerates in Mid-September .
Even after the National Day buildup, the October 7 total of 18.32 million tonnes remained approximately 180,000 tonnes below the September 17 level.
Post-Holiday Demand Will Determine Inventory Pressure
Traders remained cautious about the immediate post-holiday market despite October traditionally being one of China's stronger seasonal steel-consumption periods.
Mysteel cited high inventory pressure and weakening cost-side support as factors weighing on sentiment.
The market source indicated that traders could reduce offer prices to move inventories if the expected post-holiday demand recovery fails to develop.
The outlook should be treated as a market expectation rather than a confirmed subsequent price movement.
Rebar and HRC Prices Moved in Opposite Directions Before the Break
Chinese finished-steel prices showed mixed movements immediately before the National Day holiday.
Mysteel assessed the national price of HRB400E 20 mm diameter rebar at Yuan 3,330/tonne ($497/t) on September 30.
The assessment included 13% VAT and was Yuan 7/t higher than on September 24.
In contrast, Mysteel's national average for Q235 4.75 mm hot-rolled coil declined by Yuan 10/t during the same period to Yuan 3,307/t including 13% VAT.
| Product | Sept. 30 Price | Sept. 24-30 Move | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| HRB400E 20 mm rebar | Yuan 3,330/t | +Yuan 7/t | National assessment, incl. 13% VAT |
| Q235 4.75 mm HRC | Yuan 3,307/t | -Yuan 10/t | National assessment, incl. 13% VAT |
Latest Mill Data Show Profitability Remains Weak
A separate Mysteel survey published after the holiday provides additional context for the inventory buildup.
Among 247 Chinese blast-furnace steelmakers surveyed over October 1-8, capacity utilization remained broadly steady at approximately 87.8%, while average daily hot-metal output held near 2.34 million tonnes/day.
Only 7% of the surveyed mills were profitable as of October 8, unchanged from immediately before the holiday.
Mysteel indicated that persistent losses could prompt some producers to reduce or suspend production after the holiday if conditions fail to improve.
Earlier weakness in downstream conditions was also visible in Tangshan, where re-rollers entered the holiday with cautious billet purchasing and weak finished-steel margins. See: Tangshan Billet Holds at Yuan 3,000/t as Demand Rises .
What Does the Inventory Build Mean for China's Steel Market?
The October holiday produced a predictable interruption in normal trading, but the resulting inventory increase leaves traders and mills carrying more material into the post-holiday market.
HRC posted the largest stock increase by volume among the five products, while mill inventories rose substantially faster than trader stocks.
At the same time, weak mill profitability limits the evidence for a sustained production push.
The next market test is therefore whether October end-user demand is strong enough to restart inventory reductions without requiring broader price concessions.
If consumption remains weak, the combination of elevated stocks and softer raw-material cost support could increase pressure on seller offers. If demand improves, the holiday accumulation could instead prove temporary.
Primary source: Mysteel Global.
Reporting period: National Day holiday, October 1-7, 2026.
Additional current context: Mysteel blast-furnace steelmaker survey through October 8, 2026.
