China Top Steel Hubs Output Falls 2.9% Through September

Crude steel production across China's 10 largest steelmaking provinces and autonomous regions fell 2.9% year over year to 518.88 million tonnes in January-September 2026, although September output from the major hubs rose 1.7% as Hebei recorded a 15.9% increase.

MONTREAL (SteelPrices): Crude steel production among China's 10 largest steelmaking provinces and autonomous regions totaled 518.88 million tonnes in January-September 2026, down 2.9% from the corresponding period last year, according to National Bureau of Statistics data reported by Mysteel Global.

The pace of decline narrowed slightly from the 3.0% year-over-year decrease recorded across the same regions during January-August.

The improvement reflected stronger September production in several important steelmaking centers.

Top 10 Regions Produce 71.6% of China's Crude Steel

China produced 724.77 million tonnes of crude steel nationally during January-September, down 2.9% year over year.

The 518.88 million tonnes produced by the top 10 steelmaking regions therefore represented approximately 71.6% of national output.

For the full national production breakdown, see: China Crude Steel Output Falls 2.9% Through September .

Major Steel Hubs Increase September Output 1.7%

September showed a different pattern from the nine-month decline.

The top 10 steelmaking regions produced 51.75 million tonnes of crude steel during the month, up 1.7% year over year.

By comparison, nationwide crude steel production reached 73.59 million tonnes, up only 0.1% from September 2025.

The top 10 hubs therefore accounted for approximately 70.3% of national September crude steel production.

Hebei Steel Output Jumps 15.9% Year Over Year

Five of China's 10 largest steelmaking regions recorded higher crude steel production in September.

Hebei province, China's largest steelmaking base, posted the strongest increase, with crude steel output rising 15.9% year over year.

Mysteel attributed the sharp gains in several major producing regions primarily to stronger mill production enthusiasm during the first half of September.

Finished-steel prices had improved, while market participants were anticipating stronger seasonal demand as China moved into its traditional autumn consumption period.

Rebar Prices Improved in Early September

Mysteel reported that the national price of HRB400E 20 mm rebar averaged Yuan 3,335/t during the first two weeks of September.

The cited August average was Yuan 3,242/t.

The improvement in early-month steel pricing coincided with mills increasing crude steel production, but the demand improvement ultimately proved weaker than expected.

CISA Mills Raise Output Early, Then Pull Back

China Iron and Steel Association member mills increased daily crude steel production during the first 10 days of September.

Average output reached approximately 1.924 million tonnes/day, up 2.0% from the final 11 days of August.

Production then eased slightly to 1.922 million tonnes/day during September 11-20 before falling more clearly in the final 10 days of the month.

During September 21-30, CISA-member mills produced approximately 1.881 million tonnes/day, down 2.1% from mid-September.

The shift supports Mysteel's assessment that mills entered September with stronger production expectations before actual steel consumption fell short of the anticipated seasonal recovery.

Mill Inventories Rose Before Late-Month Destocking

The CISA data also show why mill production became harder to sustain.

Finished-steel inventories held by large and medium-sized CISA member mills rose to 17.08 million tonnes as of September 20, up 3.4% from September 10.

By September 30, mill inventories had fallen to 15.65 million tonnes, down 8.4% from September 20.

SteelOrbis said the late-month decline reflected a combination of pre-holiday buyer restocking and active mill destocking rather than evidence of a broad recovery in end-user demand.

After the National Day holiday, wider trader inventories again increased. SteelPrices reported stocks of five major carbon steel products rising 4.5% to 18.32 million tonnes: China Steel Inventories Rise 4.5% During National Day Holiday .

Guangdong Output Rises Despite Broader Production Decline

Most of China's top steelmaking hubs recorded lower cumulative output during January-September, but Guangdong province remained a notable exception.

Guangdong produced 31.12 million tonnes of crude steel during the first nine months, up 3.2% year over year.

The growth rate has nevertheless been slowing.

Guangdong's cumulative output had been up 5.6% through July and 4.2% through August before narrowing to 3.2% through September.

Central Inspection Flags Steel Capacity Violations in Guangdong

Guangdong's production growth has also drawn attention from central environmental authorities.

A central ecological and environmental protection inspection team delivered its findings to Guangdong authorities on September 18.

The inspection said some steel companies had exceeded production-volume targets.

It also found that some steelmakers had failed to comply with steel capacity-replacement requirements and had expanded electric-furnace dimensions during renovations, resulting in unauthorized additions to crude steelmaking capacity.

The inspection instructed Guangdong to strictly implement national capacity and output-control policies for key industries and prepare a rectification plan.

Production Controls Remain Part of China's Steel Market

The cumulative decline across most major steelmaking centers is consistent with broader pressure on Chinese mills to limit output and inventories.

CISA called on producers in September to exercise production discipline and reduce inventories as the industry continued to face weak downstream demand and oversupply concerns.

However, regional production patterns show that output controls are not operating uniformly.

Hebei recorded a sharp September increase, Guangdong remained above year-earlier output on a nine-month basis, and half of the top 10 hubs increased production during September.

Exports Continue to Absorb Large Steel Volumes

Exports remain another important part of China's steel balance.

China exported 10.492 million tonnes of finished steel in September, up 3.3% from August and 0.3% year over year.

September was the fifth consecutive month with exports above 10 million tonnes.

January-September shipments reached 85.641 million tonnes, down 2.6% from the unusually strong 2025 comparison period.

Read the full SteelPrices trade report: China Steel Exports Rise 3.3% to 10.49M Tons .

What Do China's Regional Steel Output Data Show?

The regional figures reinforce the conclusion that China's steel production story is becoming increasingly uneven.

The country's largest steelmaking hubs still produced less crude steel overall during the first nine months of 2026, broadly matching the national 2.9% decline.

But September brought a temporary acceleration in several major regions as steel prices improved and mills anticipated stronger seasonal demand.

That production push weakened later in the month when demand did not improve as strongly as expected.

At the same time, Hebei's 15.9% September increase and Guangdong's continuing year-over-year growth demonstrate that national production restraint is not translating into identical operating patterns across China's major steel centers.

Primary regional reporting: Mysteel Global, based on National Bureau of Statistics data.

National production verification: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Mill production data: China Iron and Steel Association.

Guangdong capacity context: Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection feedback issued September 18, 2026.