The global market for hot-rolled coil has been growing steadily since early November

Negative dynamics are observed only in China

In early November, the global hot-rolled coil (HRC) market is showing a predominantly upward trend. Prices are rising in the EU and the US amid more stable demand and reduced supply, while China, on the contrary, remains under pressure from seasonal decline and competition in export markets.

EU

In Europe, hot-rolled coil prices have been rising since early November. In particular, offers in Western Europe and Italy increased by 1.7% between October 31 and November 21, 2025, to €610/t Ex-works and €605/t Ex-works, respectively. At the same time, import offers in Southern Europe rose by 5.3% to €500/t CIF, the highest level since early October.

The gradual recovery in prices in November was due to a combination of supply and demand factors. On the producers’ side, the main driver was negotiations on annual contracts with the automotive industry, where steelmakers are insisting on price increases of at least €60-100/t compared to last year. This creates psychological pressure on the market and sets a higher bar for expectations regarding quotations for the first quarter of 2026.

The supply of HRC in Europe does not show a deficit yet, but pressure from the CRC and HDG segments is significantly increasing: an accident at the Marcegaglia plant and the shutdown of one of the Italian producers have reduced the availability of cold-rolled products. The priority use of some coils for further processing limits the domestic supply of HRC. At the same time, uncertainty about CBAM mechanisms and further protective measures reduces the competitiveness of imports, strengthening the position of European mills.

Overall, demand remains subdued. Service centers are only working with current orders, and large buyers filled their warehouses with imports from Asia back in the summer. This is holding back potential growth, while some producers are forced to offer discounts to maintain sales volumes.

A moderate strengthening of prices is expected by the end of the year, in the range of €10-20/t, mainly due to negotiations with the automotive industry and the gradual depletion of import stocks. However, without an improvement in final demand, the market does not expect a significant increase in HRC prices for the time being.

United States

In the United States, hot-rolled coil prices shifted from prolonged stagnation to significant growth in early November, bringing quotations to their highest level since August. Offers rose by 4.1% between October 31 and November 21, to $970/t.

The key driver was a series of price increases by US producers, primarily Nucor, which announced weekly upward adjustments over a five-week period. This was compounded by steps taken by NLMK USA and other initiatives in the flat steel market, including price increases for thick-gauge steel, which strengthened the overall market backdrop.

A slight reduction in product availability on the spot market due to autumn capacity shutdowns helped mills to implement the increases. Buyers who had postponed purchases were forced to return to the market at the new prices. At the same time, the contract segment remained stable, and against the backdrop of an expected improvement in capacity utilization in Q1 2026, producers sought to lay a higher base for future deliveries in advance.

At the same time, demand from processors is not showing steady growth. Service centers are reducing their activity at the end of the year, anticipating a seasonal decline in sales and cautiously assessing the risks of accumulating expensive inventories. In addition, the maintenance of short delivery times indicates that there is no real shortage yet.

By the end of the year, prices are expected to remain close to current levels, fluctuating within the range of $10-20/t. Further dynamics will depend on whether producers manage to maintain supply discipline in early 2026, when market participants begin to actively replenish their stocks.

China

On the Chinese market, prices for hot-rolled coil have fallen since the beginning of November by 3.1% to $470/t FOB, the lowest level since early July.

After a brief upturn in late October, which was caused by speculation about policies to combat excessive competition between companies and rising coking coal prices, the market quickly lost momentum. Real demand began to decline due to the approaching seasonal slowdown in winter, and hot-rolled coil inventories began to grow again. At the same time, flat steel production is declining more slowly than long steel, which is putting additional pressure on prices.

Export activity remained weak. Despite the correction in offers, buyers remained cautious amid volatility. Competition from Japan, India, and Indonesia limits the potential for price increases, and occasional deep discounts from Chinese traders indicate a struggle for volume.

The market will remain under pressure from the seasonal decline until the end of the year. A further correction of $5-10/t is likely. A slight recovery is possible only in the event of a more significant reduction in production or new incentives from the state.

Courtesy: https://gmk.center/en/news/