Domestic production is recovering in China, while India is weighing the impact of possible tariffs on coke imports. Asian coking coal prices fluctuated in November amid changing trends in China and India.
According to Kallanish, the price of high-quality coking coal FOB Australia as of November 21 was $201.6/t, up 2.5% from the previous week.
Spot prices for coking coal in China (EXW, Anze) on the same date were $233.35/t (-2.6% compared to the previous week).
In the first half of November, prices for Australian marine coking coal remained within a limited range ($196-197/t). Market sentiment was cautious and trading was weak. Traders mainly monitored prices and demand in China. However, last week (November 14-21), prices rose amid an improvement in some fundamental economic indicators in China in October, which was noted by sellers.
At the same time, domestic prices for coking coal in China have been trending downward since mid-November after strengthening at the beginning of the month. This is due to a change in sentiment regarding a possible supply shortage. Currently, domestic production is slowly recovering, mines are increasing their stocks of this raw material, and buyers are refraining from deals in anticipation of a price correction. In addition, there are rumors of an increase in Mongolian coal supplies in the near future, which has also affected futures.
In October, China increased its imports of coking coal by 6% year-on-year to 10.6 million tons, the second highest figure this year after September. The average import price, according to Mysteel Global calculations, was $98.5/t (+3.3% month-on-month). Chinese importers showed steady interest in sea shipments of this raw material last month. Based on November results, coking coal imports to the country may increase significantly, as consumers need to build up sufficient stocks before winter.
According to BigMint, the Indian coking coal market is currently facing challenging expectations in the short and long term. The possible introduction of anti-dumping duties on coke imports gives Indian producers of this product cause for optimism, as it opens up opportunities for growth in domestic production. This, in turn, will increase imports of coking coal, and traders predict that prices for it may rise over the next few months.
In November this year, India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) preliminarily recommended imposing anti-dumping duties on imports of low-ash metallurgical coke from six countries – Australia, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Japan, and Russia – in the amount of $60.87–130. 66/t.
As of November 21, BigMint estimated the premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index in India at $219/t CNF Paradip. This is $6/t more than on November 14.
It should be noted that India plans to increase coking coal production. The country’s dependence on imports of this product is an obstacle to increasing steel production, according to the relevant ministry.
