In November, the global square billet market saw mixed price trends, but overall the situation remained stable, with no sharp fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, most major billet markets saw a cautious upward trend, driven by improved sentiment in Asia. At the end of the month, the price situation remained stable due to low activity and weak demand ahead of winter.
On the Black Sea square billet market (Black Sea FOB basis), average quotations in November rose by $4 to $437/t. This was expected, as billet exporters planned to raise prices by $2–3 due to the strengthening of the ruble and the increase in the cost of semi-finished products from China.
In November, the price of square billets on Turkey Ex-Works terms rose by an average of $5 to $518/t. Following changes in the DIR (domestic processing regime), Turkish billet buyers are mostly placing orders on the domestic market. At the end of October, local producers increased billet output by 9.2% year-on-year to 2.1 million tons, and by 4.7% year-on-year to 19.9 million tons in the first ten months of this year. According to Kallanish, the Kardemir plant sold 50,000 tons of billets at a tender at a price of $515/ton (grade S235JR) and $525/ton (grade B420), which is $15 more than at the October auction.
In early November, prices for billets in Tangshan (China) declined as local producers halted operations due to environmental restrictions. In the middle of the period, quotations recovered somewhat, but the growth was less pronounced than on the futures market.
At the end of the month, billet prices in Tangshan rose, although many local rollers were forced to halt production due to losses. At the same time, many buyers are expecting billet prices to fall in order to replenish their stocks due to losses. One of the main reasons for the losses was the increase in coke prices in early November. Overall, billet prices in Tangshan rose by $1 – to $420/t in November, although there was a decline to $412/t at the beginning of the month.
Billet offers in the Persian Gulf countries remained stable in November. According to Kallanish, average quotations in Saudi Arabia were $473–480/t (Ex-Works).
In Indonesia, quotations also remained stable in November at $448/t (CFR).
Average quotations for square billets at the end of November compared to the end of the previous month in Italy (on an Ex-Works basis) fell by $4 to $558/t. Italy is the most expensive market for billets in the sample studied.
It should be noted that the global square billet market saw mixed trends in October. During the first half of the month, negative sentiment prevailed due to the weak market in China, although the situation in Turkey improved. In the second half of October, most regional billet markets saw a cautious upward trend due to improved sentiment in Asia, but its sustainability remained in question.
As previously reported, according to estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), average prices for steel billets may fall by 7.5% year-on-year – to $466.4 per tonne (FOB Ukraine) by the end of 2025. The forecast prices for 2026 and 2027 are $490.3/t (+5.1% year-on-year) and $501.1/t (+2.2% year-on-year), respectively (FOB Ukraine).
Courtesy : https://gmk.center/en
