Cleveland-Cliffs Sees 2027 EBITDA Above $4B as Steel Prices Improve
Cleveland-Cliffs returned to profitability in the third quarter as steel selling prices, shipments and operating performance improved, and the North American steelmaker now expects adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion in 2027 based on new customer contracts and prevailing steel-price forecasts.
- Q3 revenue: $5.6 billion, up from $5.2 billion in Q2.
- Steel shipments: 4.2 million net tons.
- Average steel selling price: $1,177/net ton, up $53/net ton from Q2.
- Q3 adjusted EBITDA: $612 million, versus $286 million in Q2.
- Q4 outlook: Approximately $715 million in adjusted EBITDA.
- 2027 outlook: Cleveland-Cliffs expects adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion based on new contracts and prevailing index price forecasts.
The most important number in Cleveland-Cliffs' results is not the Q3 profit. It is the company's expectation for more than $4 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2027. Q3 steel selling prices rose about 4.7% from Q2 while sales volumes increased roughly 3.1%, showing that the earnings improvement was supported by both pricing and tonnage. If Cliffs reaches its approximately $715 million Q4 EBITDA guidance, 2026 adjusted EBITDA would be roughly $1.71 billion based on the company's nine-month result. A 2027 result above $4 billion would therefore represent more than a doubling of that implied level. The outlook remains conditional on signed contract changes and prevailing steel-price forecasts rather than a guaranteed earnings result.
MONTREAL (SteelPrices): Cleveland-Cliffs reported a sharp improvement in third-quarter performance on October 19, returning to profitability as higher steel selling prices, increased shipment volumes and lower unit costs strengthened the North American producer's results.
The company recorded GAAP net income of $165 million in the quarter ended September 30, compared with a $134 million net loss in Q2.
Net income attributable to Cleveland-Cliffs shareholders was $152 million.
Adjusted EBITDA reached $612 million, more than double the $286 million reported in the second quarter and above the company's prior $575 million guidance.
Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves described the period as Cleveland-Cliffs' strongest quarter in three years.
Steel Selling Price Rises $53/Net Ton From Q2
The improvement included a meaningful increase in Cleveland-Cliffs' blended steel selling price.
The company's average net selling price reached $1,177 per net ton in Q3, compared with $1,124/net ton in Q2.
That represents an increase of $53/net ton, or approximately 4.7%.
The average was also 14.1% above the $1,032/net ton recorded in the third quarter of 2025.
| Cleveland-Cliffs Steelmaking | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales volume | 4.025M nt | 4.150M nt | +3.1% |
| Average selling price | $1,124/nt | $1,177/nt | +$53/nt |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $286M | $612M | +$326M |
Steel Shipments Increase to 4.15 Million Net Tons
External steel-product sales totaled 4.15 million net tons, up from 4.025 million net tons in Q2 and 4.029 million net tons in Q3 2025.
The third-quarter product mix consisted of:
- Hot-rolled steel: 46% of sales volume.
- Coated steel: 31%.
- Cold-rolled steel: 15%.
- Plate: 4%.
- Stainless and electrical steel: 4%.
Steelmaking revenue reached $5.45 billion.
Distributors and converters accounted for 34% of steelmaking revenue, while automotive and infrastructure/manufacturing customers each accounted for 28%. Other steel producers represented the remaining 10%.
Cleveland-Cliffs Expects Q4 EBITDA to Rise Again
Cleveland-Cliffs expects its earnings improvement to continue through the fourth quarter.
The company forecast approximately $715 million in Q4 adjusted EBITDA, which would be about $103 million, or 16.8%, above Q3.
Cliffs said the increase is expected to be driven by higher pricing, partially offset by typical fourth-quarter seasonality, planned maintenance outages, input costs and incentive-compensation accruals.
The guidance is particularly notable because Q4 is normally affected by seasonal slowing and maintenance activity.
Why Cleveland-Cliffs Thinks 2027 EBITDA Can Exceed $4 Billion
The strongest forward-looking statement in the earnings release concerns 2027.
Cleveland-Cliffs said that, based on new contracts already signed with customers and prevailing steel index-price forecasts, it expects adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion in 2027.
Goncalves said the company's outlook had improved materially since its previous earnings call as several anticipated earnings drivers developed more favorably than expected.
He also said steel imports remained below historical levels and mill lead times were extended, characterizing the current U.S. trade environment as supportive of domestic steel producers.
U.S. Mills Are Already Pushing Steel Prices Higher
Cleveland-Cliffs' pricing improvement comes as other U.S. mills have also been seeking higher producer prices.
Nucor's weekly HRC Consumer Spot Price reached $1,240 per short ton for the week beginning October 12, up $50/st from its September 8 announced level.
Nucor and Gerdau have also announced $30/st increases for rebar, while Nucor-Yamato and Gerdau have moved selected structural products higher.
Read the related SteelPrices market report: Nucor, Gerdau Raise U.S. Rebar Prices $30/Short Ton .
Stelco Turns Positive, But Galvanized Steel Remains a Problem
Canada remains one of the more complicated parts of Cleveland-Cliffs' North American strategy.
Goncalves said Stelco delivered its strongest quarter since Cleveland-Cliffs acquired the company two years ago and became a positive contributor to EBITDA in Q3.
He attributed part of the improvement to a substantially stronger Canadian hot-rolled market.
The company continues, however, to describe Canada's galvanized-steel market as oversupplied.
Cleveland-Cliffs has therefore decided to indefinitely idle Stelco's galvanizing lines while concentrating production on hot-rolled products.
The company said overall Stelco production tonnage would be maintained and approximately 2,000 Canadian jobs preserved.
That creates an important distinction between a stronger Canadian HRC market and the weaker economics of galvanized steel.
For the broader Canadian market context, see: Canadian Steelmakers Turn to Domestic Demand After U.S. Tariffs .
Cliffs Continues to Invest in Higher-Value U.S. Steel
The stronger earnings outlook also comes as Cleveland-Cliffs is committing capital to specialized U.S. steelmaking assets.
At Butler Works in Pennsylvania, the company is investing $200 million to increase production of grain-oriented electrical steel by up to 25%, supported by up to $75 million from the U.S. Department of Energy.
Cleveland-Cliffs identifies Butler Works as the only U.S. producer of grain-oriented electrical steel used in transformer cores.
Read the full SteelPrices report: Cleveland-Cliffs Plans $200M Butler GOES Expansion .
The company also holds a U.S. defence contract valued at up to $400 million for electrical steel.
See: Cleveland-Cliffs to Supply $400M of Electrical Steel .
What Do Cleveland-Cliffs' Results Say About the U.S. Steel Market?
Cleveland-Cliffs' Q3 results provide one of the clearest company-level signals so far that the U.S. steel environment strengthened during the second half of 2026.
Selling prices improved, shipments increased and cash margins expanded significantly from Q2.
The company is also forecasting additional earnings growth in Q4 despite seasonality and maintenance outages.
The more consequential question is whether the conditions behind its 2027 forecast persist.
Cleveland-Cliffs is relying on signed customer contracts, favorable steel-price expectations, reduced import pressure and domestic demand to support an adjusted EBITDA target exceeding $4 billion.
At the same time, its Stelco decisions demonstrate that stronger North American steel conditions are not uniform across every product.
Primary source: Cleveland-Cliffs Q3 2026 earnings release
Financial verification: Cleveland-Cliffs SEC filing for the quarter ended September 30, 2026.
