Global Scrap Prices Diverge as Turkey Rebounds Late
Ferrous scrap markets moved in different directions during October, with European prices generally weakening, Turkish deep-sea values recovering sharply late in the month and the U.S. domestic market strengthening even as export activity remained subdued.
- Turkey's monthly average HMS 1&2 80:20 quotation fell $4/t to about $397/t CFR despite a sharp late-October rebound.
- German E3 scrap declined about $6/t during October to $326/t ex-works.
- Italian E3 scrap fell about $7/t to $351/t, with further November pressure reported.
- U.S. domestic scrap strengthened while containerized export markets remained comparatively weak.
- China showed mixed signals, with imported scrap quotations higher on average while domestic prices weakened.
MONTREAL (SteelPrices): October's ferrous scrap market was anything but uniform.
Prices weakened across several regional markets, generally by about $3–7 per tonne on a monthly-average basis, but the headline masks some sharp differences underneath.
Turkey's benchmark deep-sea market weakened into mid-October before rebounding sharply late in the month. European mills pushed scrap prices lower as finished-steel demand remained weak. U.S. domestic prices moved higher, while export markets were less active.
Turkey Falls on Average but Rebounds Sharply Late
Turkey's deep-sea HMS 1&2 80:20 market began October around $395–398/t CFR, with U.S. exporters targeting more than $400–403/t CFR.
By mid-month, weak rebar sales and pressure from Turkish mills had pushed European-origin scrap down to roughly $380–383.5/t CFR, the lowest levels reported during the year.
The market then reversed sharply.
By late October and early November, European cargoes were reported at $398–401/t CFR, Baltic material at $397.5–402/t CFR and U.S.-origin scrap as high as $407/t CFR.
Despite that late rebound, the average October HMS 1&2 80:20 quotation was reported at approximately $397/t CFR Turkey, down $4/t from September.
Financing remained an important constraint. Market reporting cited commercial borrowing costs near 49% in Turkey and a central-bank policy rate of 37%, encouraging mills to keep purchases close to immediate production requirements.
European logistics added another complication. Low water levels on major rivers restricted barge movements, while higher ocean freight raised the delivered cost of European scrap into Turkey.
Turkey Imports 1.55 Million Tonnes in September
Turkey imported approximately 1.55 million tonnes of ferrous scrap in September, according to TÜ?K-based reporting.
That was down year over year but up from August.
January-September imports totaled approximately 14.28 million tonnes, up about 2.4% from the corresponding period of 2025.
The supplied market report identified the United States, United Kingdom and Netherlands as Turkey's leading September suppliers and placed the average import value near $387/t.
Turkish mills nevertheless remained resistant to higher deep-sea scrap prices because rebar margins were under pressure and finished-product demand remained weak.
Why October's Scrap Market Cannot Be Reduced to One Price Move
Looking only at monthly averages makes October appear broadly weaker. Looking at how the month actually traded tells a more complicated story.
- Turkey HMS 1&2 80:20: about $397/t CFR, down $4/t on the monthly average
- Germany E3: about $326/t ex-works, down $6/t
- Italy E3: about $351/t, down $7/t
- U.S. East Coast HMS 1&2 80:20: about $347/t delivered, down $3/t
- China imported scrap: about $380/t CFR, up roughly $20/t on average
The most important detail is pricing basis. Turkey and China are quoted CFR, Germany is ex-works, and the U.S. figure uses an East Coast delivery basis. These numbers show regional direction, but they are not directly interchangeable.
Turkey also demonstrates why monthly averages can be misleading: its average October price declined, yet the market ended the month close to $400/t CFR after trading near $380/t in mid-October.
European Scrap Weakens as Mills Cut Intake
European ferrous scrap markets started October with some support from stronger Turkish demand, with regional prices initially increasing by roughly €5–20/t.
Conditions weakened during the second half of the month as mills reduced scrap intake amid slow finished-steel demand.
In Germany, prices remained relatively stable for much of the month, with grade 3 scrap around €290/t and E40 around €300/t in the source reporting.
On a dollar basis, German E3 scrap was reported down about $6 during October to $326/t ex-works.
Austria recorded an increase of around €10/t.
Italy was weaker. Prices declined by approximately €10–15/t, with early-November indications placing E3 at €300–310/t, E1 at €270–280/t, E40 shredded scrap around €320/t and E8 at €320–360/t.
Italian E3 was reported at approximately $351/t, down $7/t over the month.
Assofermet reported that Italian mills increasingly restricted or stopped scrap deliveries during the final week of October as electric-arc-furnace output weakened and finished-product inventories remained high. November contracts were consequently under further downward pressure.
Low River Levels Keep European Logistics Tight
German and Central European scrap flows were also disrupted by low water levels on the Rhine, Danube and other inland waterways.
Restricted barge capacity pushed more material toward road and rail transport, raising costs and slowing deliveries.
The logistical pressure did not automatically produce higher scrap prices because weak mill demand was acting in the opposite direction.
This helps explain why German prices remained broadly stable to weaker despite tighter physical transportation conditions.
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EU Export Rules Add a Longer-Term Risk
European recyclers are also watching the EU's new Waste Shipment Regulation, which will change access to some overseas scrap markets from May 21, 2027.
The rules should not be described as a blanket ban on scrap exports to all non-OECD destinations.
Under Regulation (EU) 2024/1157, exports of relevant non-hazardous waste to non-OECD countries will generally be prohibited unless the destination country and the specific waste stream are included on an authorized European Commission list.
The Commission is due to adopt the first list by November 21, 2026.
Turkey, the largest overseas destination for EU ferrous scrap, is an OECD member and therefore falls under a different part of the regulation.
U.S. Domestic Scrap Strengthens While Exports Lag
The U.S. market showed a different pattern in October.
Domestic scrap prices strengthened as mill demand improved, while containerized export markets lost momentum after two months of recovery.
The source report placed Chicago No. 1 scrap at $475–485/t and shredded scrap at $440–455/t during October.
Domestic market participants linked the stronger prices to higher mill demand and tighter seasonal scrap availability.
By contrast, containerized HMS 1&2 80:20 export indications were reported around $325–335/t on the West Coast and $330–340/t on the East Coast amid weak Asian buying and elevated freight costs.
An East Coast delivered HMS 1&2 80:20 benchmark averaged about $347/t, down $3/t during the month.
The difference between domestic and export markets encouraged some suppliers to direct more tonnes toward U.S. mills rather than overseas buyers.
China Shows Conflicting Scrap Signals
China's scrap market also requires careful interpretation.
The supplied report places average imported scrap quotations around $380/t CFR during October, up approximately $20/t.
At the same time, domestic Chinese scrap prices declined during the month.
The source attributed domestic weakness to higher scrap availability, slower steel demand and lower prices for other steelmaking raw materials.
Those two movements are not necessarily contradictory because imported CFR quotations and domestic mill purchase prices represent different markets and pricing bases.
SteelPrices could not independently verify the precise $380/t CFR monthly average from a primary Chinese source, so that figure should remain attributed to the original market report rather than presented as an independent SteelPrices assessment.
What the October Market Is Telling Buyers
October showed that scrap prices were increasingly being determined by regional conditions rather than one global trend.
Turkey's market recovered rapidly when mills returned to deep-sea buying and supply tightened. European prices weakened because mills were reducing consumption. U.S. domestic buyers competed more aggressively for available material while export demand remained comparatively soft.
The common thread is supply discipline.
European scrap generation remains constrained, seasonal collection is beginning to slow in some markets, and logistics continue to limit how easily tonnes can move between regions.
Those factors can support prices even when finished-steel demand remains weak.
For buyers, the important question going into November is therefore not simply whether scrap is "up" or "down," but whether local mills can secure enough material at workable delivered costs without further squeezing steelmaking margins.
Sources: Market reporting citing Kallanish, TÜ?K, Destatis and regional scrap-market participants.
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