In April 2025 (the first month of the 2025/26 fiscal year), India again remained a net importer of rolled steel products. According to the Joint Committee on Steel Production, Kallanish reports that imports of the relevant products decreased by 11.3% y/y – to 519 thousand tons. However, exports declined even more sharply – by 25.7% y/y, to 375 thousand tons, creating a $260 million deficit in foreign trade.
South Korea remained the largest supplier, increasing volumes by 2.4% y/y – to 150 thousand tons. China and Japan, on the other hand, significantly reduced shipments. China accounted for 20% of imports, and the volume decreased to 100 thsd tonnes (-26.5% y/y), while Japanese exports fell by almost 60%. For the first time, the top five suppliers included Germany and France, which mainly exported plates.
In response to rising imports, the Indian government imposed a 12% safeguard duty on a number of flat products in April. This boosted domestic hot rolled coil (HRC) prices and improved market expectations.
India’s finished steel production in April increased by 5.1% y/y – to 12.46 million tons. At the same time, domestic consumption reached 12.03 million tons (+6% y/y). Major private and state-owned producers (JSW, Tata Steel, AMNS India and others) accounted for more than half of the volume – 6.6 million tons.
Demand continued to grow, with rebar consumption reaching 5.12 million tons (+3.1% y/y) and HRC consumption at 4.26 million tons (+3.2% y/y). Despite the government’s attempts to curb imports, the market structure indicates a stable need for external supplies, especially for flat products.
As GMK Center reported earlier, the Indian government is considering raising the safeguard duty on steel to 24% from the current 12% amid concerns about Chinese producers circumventing it. Complaints have been received about Chinese players trying to mitigate the impact of safeguard measures by circumventing them.
