In most regional markets for square billets, prices fell by around $10 per tonne in July. Turkey was the exception: the average price of the product rose by $8/t in July to $543/t (on a Turkey Ex-Works basis).
July on the global square billet market began with a continuation of the downward price trend and a slowdown in trading activity across almost all regional markets. By mid-month, business sentiment had improved slightly, and prices had largely stabilised against the backdrop of positive signals from China. Major buyers were focusing on cheaper sources of billets. By the end of the month, the price situation in the market remained fairly stable, although an improvement was observed in the MENA region against the backdrop of a recovery in scrap prices.
Turkey
In the Black Sea square billet market (Black Sea FOB), average quotations fell by $5 in July to $468/t. This was due to weak demand and a persistent gap between buyers’ and sellers’ expectations.
Most suppliers are refusing to lower prices below $470/t FOB and are withdrawing from overseas markets due to weak demand, as well as logistical problems at ports and competition from India and China in Turkey ($505–520/t CFR), preferring instead to sell on the Russian domestic market. At the same time, due to a slight weakening of the rouble, the competitiveness of Russian exports has increased. The cost of marine insurance in the Black Sea has risen to $10–15/t, leading to a sharp increase in freight rates from the Black Sea to Turkey – from approximately $20/t to $30–35/t.
At the same time, the average price of square billets on Turkey Ex-Works terms rose by $8/t in July, to $543/t. This was linked to sales by Kardemir, which raised its prices by $10 per tonne at the end of the month. Interest in the products is driven by rising prices for imported scrap, the requirement to source at least 25% of steel raw materials domestically when producing rolled steel for export, and payment terms.
Competition in the Turkish market has intensified: Indian billets have fallen in price to $510/t CFR, dropping below the Chinese price ($515–520/t CFR). Exports from India are brisk due to a fall in domestic demand during the monsoon season.
ASEAN countries
Throughout July, prices for square billets from China and regional mills (notably Indonesia’s Dexin Steel) showed a moderate decline:
- CFR Manila/Jakarta (5sp billets): quotations fell from $490–495/t at the start of the month to $485/t at the end of July;
- FOB China / Dexin: export offers for 3sp billets from China fell to $460–462/t FOB, whilst Dexin adjusted its prices from $470/t to $465/t FOB.
Weakening rebar futures in Shanghai and falling Chinese export prices periodically stimulated demand from rolling mills (the Philippines, Thailand). Discounted deals were mainly concluded using traders’ stock, whilst Chinese mills held back price falls due to high costs. Lower freight rates (to $17–20/t on routes to Manila) also contributed to a correction in final CFR rates.
China
According to Kallanish, spot prices for square billets in Tangshan fluctuated within a narrow range of 3,000–3,035 yuan/t (US$443–447/t) throughout July. The market came under pressure from the weakening of rebar futures. However, prices were supported by high production costs and sellers’ reluctance to lower prices due to losses. Market stocks of billets declined steadily throughout the month. Traders remained cautious and refrained from speculative stockpiling.
Persian Gulf
According to Kallanish, average billet prices in the Persian Gulf countries fell by $10 in July to $508/t (CFR). The market saw a downward price trend due to weak demand for end products (rebar) and logistical factors. Prices for deliveries from regional producers (Oman, Saudi Arabia) to the UAE fell from $640–650/t at the start of the month to $630–640/t delivered (Saudi material was sold at $603–605/t ex-works). In Saudi Arabia, domestic prices fell to $560–565/t. Buyers’ bargaining power in the UAE has strengthened thanks to the diversification of supplies and regular discounts.
The Gulf market is oversaturated with imported products. Significant queues for vessel berthing at the ports of Fujairah, Sohar and Khalifa (waiting times of 4–6 weeks) have held back sales by local producers. Alternative imports from Asia have exerted strong pressure:
- China/India: CFR offers fell to $505–512/t (FOB China – around $460/t).
- Indonesia: billets were sold at $465–470/t FOB ($510–515/t CFR).
As previously reported, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects the average price of steel billets to rise by 4.9% year-on-year by the end of 2026, to $487.7/t on FOB Ukraine terms. The forecast for 2027 and 2028 stands at $510.4/t (+4.7% year-on-year) and $518/t (+1.5% year-on-year) respectively.
Courtesy : https://gmk.center/
