Prices for rebar in early January 2026 remain stable in key regions, with slight increases in China and Northern Europe. Offers in Turkey and the US remain unchanged, while in Italy they have fallen by 0.9%.
Turkey
On the Turkish market, rebar prices remained stable at $561.4/t FOB between December 26, 2025, and January 9, 2026, although there was a slight decline to $560/t FOB at the beginning of the month.
This trend was driven by a combination of weak demand and growing pressure on costs from raw materials. Throughout December and early January, export and domestic demand remained sluggish: activity in Europe was subdued by the holiday season and CBAM expectations, while sales to Africa, Cyprus, and Georgia were limited to small batches. Despite this, Turkish producers tried to maintain their quotations thanks to consistently high scrap prices, which limited the scope for further declines.
Some mills, notably Kardemir, stimulated sales through deferred payments, but the overall market picture remained weak. Lower price offers from North Africa put additional pressure on competitiveness, while shipments to the US were limited due to trade barriers.
In the short term, rebar prices in Turkey are likely to remain stable near current levels. Demand may recover only after the holiday season, but high scrap prices and regulatory restrictions in the EU will continue to weigh on the market.
EU
The European market saw mixed dynamics. In Northern Europe, offers have risen by 0.8% since the beginning of the year to €600/t ex-works. Prices have recovered after a decline in December but are still below last year’s average of €623/t. In Italy, prices fell by 0.9% between December 26, 2025, and January 9, 2026, to €550/t ex-works. The average price in 2025 was €546/t.
The difference in dynamics between regions was primarily due to the state of demand and consumption patterns. In Northern Europe, prices partially recovered after the December decline amid cost pressures, particularly rising scrap prices, as well as expectations related to the introduction of CBAM. At the same time, actual demand in the construction sector remained weak, limiting the ability of plants to raise prices. The holiday season and processors’ cautious policy on stockpiling further restrained market activity.
In Italy, the market was under pressure from sluggish demand after the holidays and the absence of a supply shortage, which prevented the increases recorded in early December from taking hold. Despite attempts by producers to push up prices, deals remained within previous levels, and the impact of CBAM on pricing at the start of 2026 was limited.
In the short term, the European rebar market is likely to remain in a phase of fragile stabilization. Weak demand and high competition will hold back price growth, while cost pressures may only limit further declines.
USA
In the US market, rebar prices have remained at $1003.1/t ex-works (Middle East) since mid-November.
This stability continued throughout December and early January amid a seasonal slowdown in demand, but at the same time, supply was severely limited. American mills have already sold most of their volumes in advance, with delivery dates up to Q1 2026, which reduced price flexibility. Additional market support came from rising scrap prices amid winter collection restrictions and steady interest from mills. Imports remained low, and delays in bringing new capacity online exacerbated the shortage. Despite weak activity in residential construction, stable demand from infrastructure projects, energy, and data centers supported manufacturers’ capacity utilization. In mid-January, leading companies announced price increases, confirming the presence of upward pressure.
In the short term, the US rebar market will remain stable or moderately bullish, provided that supply remains limited and scrap prices continue to rise, while the weak residential segment will restrain sharp price movements.
China
In China, prices have risen by 1.1% since the beginning of the year, to $452.6/t FOT Warehouse. The upward trend has continued since December, when offers rose by 2.6%.
Over the past month, the Chinese rebar market has seen price fluctuations influenced by both seasonal and political factors. In early December, prices fell due to weak demand, cold weather, and expectations of a new export licensing system, which could limit sales abroad and increase domestic supply. Later, thanks to temporary production restrictions and higher iron ore costs, prices recovered. After the New Year holidays, supply increased as factories resumed operations, but seasonal slowdown in construction held back demand. As of early January, the market remained volatile, with regional differences in consumption and traders taking a cautious approach to stockpiling in winter.
In the short term, prices are expected to strengthen moderately, supported by partial demand and stabilisation in raw material costs, but no significant growth is forecast without an improvement in construction activity.
Courtesy : https://gmk.center/en
