HRC prices in Northern Europe have fallen to €530/t, but demand is beginning to recover ahead of Q4 and CBAM
The European hot-rolled coil (HRC) market is showing signs of stabilizing at minimum levels, despite the general sluggishness of business activity. In Northern Europe, offers have fallen by another €10/t to €530-550/t EXW, while in Southern Europe prices remain stable at €520-540/t EXW. This is according to a report by the European Steel Dynamics News Service.
Against the backdrop of short delivery times – until the end of August – manufacturers are signaling that they have reached the bottom of the price range. Capacity utilization remains low, but improved orders for Q4 and more active negotiations for 2026 contracts are creating more balanced expectations in the sector.
Import offers remain competitive at €450-470/t CIF Italy, but buyers are cautious due to logistical risks and uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the Cross-Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Most are seeking to secure supplies until the end of 2025 to avoid complications with the new requirements that will come into force in January 2026. However, there remains uncertainty as to which reporting period deliveries at the turn of the year will be attributed to.
Some service centers report a revival in demand in the sheet and pipe segment, which could support market stabilization and contribute to a positive start to the fall season.
“Demand is growing better than expected. It seems that a price recovery in the fall is inevitable,” an Italian trader commented to WSD.
According to WSD analysts, HRC prices have likely bottomed out. Manufacturers are no longer able to lower prices further due to low margins. By the end of the year, prices may rise to €610-620/t amid CBAM stockpiling, a gradual recovery in demand, and rising prices for iron ore and scrap.
A serious wave of purchases on the market is expected in September. The strengthening of protectionist measures may also boost activity: according to some estimates, tariff quotas may be reduced by 40-50% from January 2026, which would effectively mean the early termination of the current trade protection regime, scheduled for June 2026.
