The shortage of coking coal in China is set to persist in 2027, ensuring strong demand for imports despite the authorities’ attempts to revive domestic production and stabilise prices. This is reported by Bloomberg.
The supply shock caused by the mine accident in Shanxi Province in May will have long-lasting consequences. According to estimates by analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence (BI), the recovery in production will be gradual due to strict safety measures. Increased supplies from Mongolia, Australia and Russia will partially offset the shortfall, but will not be able to fill the gap entirely.
According to customs data, imports of coking coal into the PRC in August totalled 13.1 million tonnes, which is 4% below the peak figure recorded in July, but 29% higher than last year’s level and remains close to the record set in December 2025.
The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China has called for the resumption of operations at mines that were shut down after May to be accelerated, by allowing low-risk facilities to restart. Production in Shanxi is expected to begin recovering in the fourth quarter, although a full return to normal will not occur until the first half of 2027 at the earliest. According to Mysteel data from 16 September, 75 mines with an annual capacity of around 73 million tonnes remained closed in Shanxi.
Expectations of a resumption in production and the low profitability of steelworks have already led to a price correction. In September, only around 7% of steelworks were operating profitably, meaning they were no longer able to afford expensive coking coal. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, coking coal futures fell by 12% from their August high (1,729 yuan) to 1,523.5 yuan per tonne. Singapore iron ore futures were trading at $96.55 per tonne.
As reported by GMK Center, global coking coal prices showed a significant increase in August due to rising demand in China against a backdrop of supply shortages. The price of high-quality coking coal FOB Australia stood at $267.1/t as at 28 August 2026 (+22.2% compared with 31 July). Spot prices for coking coal in China (EXW, Anze) on the same date stood at $357.1/t, which is 20% higher than at the end of July.
