EUROFER Cuts 2026 EU Steel Demand Growth Forecast to 0.1%
The European Steel Association has lowered its 2026 forecast for EU apparent steel consumption to growth of just 0.1%, or around 135 million tonnes, despite a 1.5% year-over-year increase in the first quarter. A stronger 2.3% recovery is forecast for 2027.
- 2026 apparent steel consumption: Forecast to rise just 0.1% year over year to approximately 135 million tonnes.
- Forecast revised lower: EUROFER's June outlook had projected 0.4% growth for 2026.
- 2027 outlook: Consumption is forecast to increase 2.3% to approximately 138 million tonnes.
- Q1 2026: Apparent consumption rose 1.5% year over year to 34.4 million tonnes.
- Industrial demand: Output in steel-using sectors is forecast to grow 1.5% in 2026, while automotive production is expected to decline 0.9%.
EUROFER's downgrade is more significant than the small change in the headline percentage suggests. Apparent consumption was already 1.5% higher year over year in the first quarter, yet the association now expects only 0.1% growth for 2026 as a whole, pointing to much weaker momentum through the remainder of the year. The projected 2.3% rebound in 2027 would improve the direction of travel, but EUROFER still expects EU steel consumption to remain around 7 million tonnes below 2019 levels.
The European Steel Association (EUROFER) expects apparent steel consumption in the European Union to increase by only 0.1% year over year in 2026, to approximately 135 million tonnes.
The forecast is contained in EUROFER's latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2026–2027, its third-quarter assessment of the European steel market.
The latest projection represents a downgrade from the association's June outlook, which had forecast 0.4% growth in apparent steel consumption for 2026.
2027 Recovery Forecast at 2.3%
EUROFER expects a more meaningful improvement in steel demand in 2027, forecasting apparent consumption growth of 2.3% year over year to approximately 138 million tonnes.
Even with that increase, EUROFER expects EU apparent steel consumption to remain around 7 million tonnes below 2019 levels.
| Period | Apparent Consumption | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 34.4 million tonnes | +1.5% |
| 2026 forecast | 135 million tonnes | +0.1% |
| 2027 forecast | 138 million tonnes | +2.3% |
Steel-Using Sectors Recover Only Modestly
EUROFER expects output in EU steel-using sectors to increase by 1.5% in 2026 following two years of decline.
The recovery is expected to remain uneven across major steel-consuming industries.
Construction and mechanical engineering are expected to support industrial growth, while automotive output is forecast to decline by a further 0.9% year over year.
EUROFER does not expect a broader recovery across steel-using sectors until 2027, when sector output is forecast to grow more strongly.
| Indicator | 2026 Outlook |
|---|---|
| Steel-using sector output | +1.5% |
| Construction | Growth expected |
| Mechanical engineering | Growth expected |
| Automotive | -0.9% |
EU Steel Production Remains Near Historic Lows
The subdued demand outlook follows a difficult period for European steel production.
EU crude steel output fell 2.9% year over year in 2025 to a record low of 125.8 million tonnes.
Production remained under pressure in early 2026, declining by approximately 1% year over year during the first five months, according to EUROFER.
EUROFER separately reported that crude steel production increased 1.1% year over year in May, but the association continues to characterize overall production levels as historically weak.
EU Steel Exports Fall 20% in First Half
Trade data provide another indication of pressure on European steelmakers.
EU steel exports to third countries fell by 20% year over year in the first half of 2026.
Exports of finished steel products declined by 18%, reflecting lower shipments of both flat and long products.
Finished flat steel exports fell by 19% year over year, while exports of long products declined by 15%.
| EU Export Category | H1 2026 Y/Y Change |
|---|---|
| Total steel exports | -20% |
| Finished steel | -18% |
| Flat steel products | -19% |
| Long steel products | -15% |
Five Markets Account for 64% of Finished Steel Exports
The United Kingdom, Turkey, the United States, Switzerland and India were the main destinations for EU finished steel exports during January–June 2026.
Together, those five markets accounted for 64% of total EU finished steel exports.
The weakening export environment adds another constraint to the European market at a time when domestic apparent steel consumption is expected to remain virtually flat and crude steel production remains near historically low levels.
Primary source: European Steel Association (EUROFER) , Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2026–2027, Third Quarter.
Courtesy: GMK Center