In late September and October, the global hot rolled coil (HRC) market showed opposite trends in key regions. European prices went up on the back of expected stronger trade protection, while the US remained stable amid weak demand, and China again lowered its prices due to excess inventories and lack of confidence in the industry’s recovery.
Europe
Hot rolled coil prices in Europe have been on the rebound since the beginning of October. In particular, in Western Europe, supply increased by 3.5% between September 26 and October 17 to €595/t Ex-works. Import prices in Southern Europe increased by 0.5% to €485/mt CIF, while in the Italian market, products are offered at €560/mt Ex-works (+4.2%) with the prospect of further growth.
The price increase occurred amid a sharp increase in trade protection in the EU and expectations of the impact of CBAM. At the end of September, the market remained sluggish, with low demand from end users and service centers. The situation changed when the European Commission announced plans to cut steel import quotas in half and impose a 50% duty on over-quota steel. This caused panic among traders and restarted a wave of price increases.
In October, most producers began to withdraw their offers, expecting a new level of equilibrium in the market. ArcelorMittal and other major European steel mills raised their base prices to €630-650/t for delivery in December-January, while Italian processors gradually followed suit. Growth was supported by the shutdown of blast furnaces at ArcelorMittal Fos-sur-Mer in France and concerns about supply shortages.
Despite the increase, activity remains low, as many buyers have already secured imported material in the summer. However, the market is gradually moving into a recovery phase. Service centers are seeing the first signs of a pickup in demand, and producers are seeking to secure a new price level of around €600-650/t, which could be the basis for contracts for early 2026.
USA
On the US market, prices for hot-rolled coils were recorded at $931.45/t and have remained unchanged since the beginning of September. At the same time, supply remains 27.1% higher than at the beginning of the year.
The US hot rolled coil market is in a phase of prolonged stability, with prices unchanged for more than six weeks, demand remaining subdued and distributors buying only the minimum required volumes. Despite expectations of a seasonal revival in the fall, the market remains dormant, with normal delivery times (3-5 weeks) and sufficient supply.
A combination of seasonal repairs at factories and low stocks in service centers was a key factor in keeping prices down, which limits the risk of a decline in prices. At the same time, analysts note a weak recovery in the consumer sector, particularly in the automotive and construction industries, which gives no reason for demand growth.
The market is further supported by recent decisions on anti-dumping duties on imports of corrosion-resistant steel from a number of countries, as well as news of a possible partnership between Cleveland-Cliffs and South Korean Posco, which could strengthen domestic production. However, so far these factors have not translated into real growth – market participants expect that some recovery and attempts to raise prices are likely only at the end of the year or in the first quarter of 2026.
China
The Chinese market was marked by a 1% decline in prices, to $480/mt FOB. This is the lowest level since mid-July.
In late September and early October, hot rolled coil prices in China remained under pressure from weak domestic demand, high inventories and sluggish trade. On the eve of the National Day, there was no traditional restocking, which deepened the decline in prices on the futures market. An additional factor was a new wave of pessimism over possible US tariffs on Chinese goods.
After the holidays, the market stabilized briefly. Buyers began a cautious resumption of purchases, but trading activity remained limited. High inventories and steady production prevented prices from rising. Investors were awaiting the decision of the CPC Central Committee Plenum on economic policy, but the lack of signals of demand support caused another wave of decline in mid-October.
On the foreign market, HRC prices fell to $464-465/t FOB for November deliveries, with some traders using VAT avoidance schemes to offer the material even below $450/t. The lack of strict customs control contributed to the return of gray operations. Major buyers in Southeast Asia remain cautious, expecting further declines, which keeps the Chinese market in a phase of weakness and increases the risk of new corrections.
Courtesy : https://gmk.center/
