The World Steel Association (Worldsteel) forecasts that global steel demand will grow by 0.3% this year, reaching 1.72 billion tons. This is stated in the association’s April short-term outlook.
In 2027, accelerated growth of 2.2% is expected, reaching 1.76 billion tons.
Steel demand in China is expected to decline by 1.5% in 2026 as the housing market correction nears its bottom. Infrastructure investment in the country is expected to increase this year thanks to efforts by local authorities to support GDP growth. Steel demand in the country’s manufacturing sector will maintain moderate growth in 2026 as exports continue to expand. However, a more challenging global trade environment remains a significant risk and could potentially slow growth in the coming years.
In 2027, the association expects steel demand in China to remain virtually unchanged compared to 2026 levels. The forecast is based on the assumption that the prolonged correction in the real estate sector will largely be over by that time, easing the severe downward pressure that has dominated the industry since 2021.
India maintains its position as the world’s fastest-growing major steel market—demand there is expected to grow by 7.4% in 2026 and accelerate to 9.2% in 2027. This will drive broad potential across all key steel-consuming sectors. These include infrastructure-focused steel construction and the automotive sector, which is supported by growing demand for freight transport.
Growth in steel demand in developing countries (excluding China) will slow to 2.5% in 2026, which is significantly lower than the approximately 5% annual growth recorded in recent years. This will be primarily driven by a sharp decline in the Middle East. The outlook for 2027 is more optimistic—growth is expected to rebound to 5.1%.
Steel demand in developed countries rose by 0.2% in 2025, marking the end of a three-year consecutive decline since 2021. Worldsteel expects this stabilization to pave the way for a gradual recovery—1% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027.
However, market volume last year remained approximately 60 million tons (15%) below 2017–2018 levels, indicating that a full return to pre-crisis volumes remains a long-term goal.
The association forecasts that demand in the EU+UK region will grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. The long-awaited recovery in the European Union reflects the impact of increased infrastructure and defense spending on the continent, combined with expected improvements in macroeconomic conditions, such as rising real household incomes.
However, the region’s high exposure to energy price spikes remains a significant downside risk for 2026.
Steel demand in the United States will grow by 1.7% in 2026 and by 2% in 2027, driven by robust, technology-driven, and politically supported private-sector investments, as well as continued public infrastructure spending. A healthy recovery is also expected in the residential construction sector, though its pace is likely to remain limited due to structural issues such as rising material costs and high mortgage rates.
As a reminder, global steel production fell by 2% year-on-year in 2025, to 1.8 billion tons.
