India Targets 123M Tons of Ferrous Scrap Use by 2047
India's draft National Steel Policy: Vision 2047 projects ferrous scrap consumption rising from 36 million tonnes in FY2025-26 to 123 million tonnes by FY2047-48, with domestic scrap generation expected to supply 111 million tonnes of the total.
- Ferrous scrap consumption: Projected to rise from 36 million tonnes in FY2025-26 to 123 million tonnes in FY2047-48.
- Domestic scrap generation: Expected to increase from 28 million tonnes to 111 million tonnes.
- Scrap imports: Projected to rise comparatively modestly from 8 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes.
- Steel capacity: The draft targets 604 million tonnes of crude steel capacity by 2047.
- Finished-steel demand: Projected at 505 million tonnes, with per-capita consumption reaching 302 kg.
- Policy status: The document remains a draft, with public feedback open through October 30, 2026.
The most important scrap-market signal is not simply that India's ferrous scrap requirement could more than triple. The draft expects almost all of the additional tonnage to come from within India. Domestic generation would rise by 83 million tonnes, from 28 million tonnes to 111 million tonnes, while imports increase by only 4 million tonnes. On the draft's figures, domestically generated material would rise from about 78% of total scrap use today to roughly 90% by FY2047-48, making collection, vehicle and ship recycling, demolition recovery and formal processing capacity central to the strategy.
India's Ministry of Steel is proposing a major expansion of the country's domestic ferrous scrap ecosystem as part of its draft National Steel Policy: Vision 2047.
The document projects total ferrous scrap consumption for crude steel production at 123 million tonnes in FY2047-48, compared with 36 million tonnes in FY2025-26.
That would represent an increase of 87 million tonnes, or approximately 242%, over the period.
How Much Ferrous Scrap Does India Plan to Use by 2047?
In FY2025-26, India used approximately 36 million tonnes of ferrous scrap in crude steel production.
Of that total, 28 million tonnes were generated domestically and 8 million tonnes were imported.
The draft projects a staged increase to:
| Fiscal Year | Domestic Generation | Imports | Total Scrap Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 28 Mt | 8 Mt | 36 Mt |
| 2030-31 | 49 Mt | 9 Mt | 58 Mt |
| 2035-36 | 71 Mt | 10 Mt | 81 Mt |
| 2040-41 | 92 Mt | 11 Mt | 103 Mt |
| 2047-48 | 111 Mt | 12 Mt | 123 Mt |
Domestic Scrap Supply Would Nearly Quadruple
The draft places most of the burden of future scrap supply growth on India's domestic collection and processing system.
Domestic generation is projected to increase from 28 million tonnes to 111 million tonnes, a gain of approximately 296%, or almost four times the FY2025-26 level.
Imports, by comparison, are projected to increase from 8 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes, a 50% increase over more than two decades.
On that basis, imported material would fall from approximately 22% of India's total ferrous scrap requirement today to about 10% by FY2047-48.
Vehicle, Ship and Demolition Scrap Are Central to the Plan
The draft identifies several policy measures intended to increase domestic scrap availability.
These include the Vehicle Scrapping Policy, modernization and expansion of ship-recycling facilities, and implementation of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) for end-of-life vehicles, construction waste and consumer durables.
The Ministry also identifies significant untapped ferrous scrap in households, obsolete products, construction and demolition waste, disputed industrial assets and end-of-life vehicles.
It proposes a national collection initiative operating in “mission mode,” modelled on the Swachhata Abhiyan approach, to channel more of this material into India's formal recycling ecosystem.
Ship Recycling Could Add to Domestic Ferrous Scrap Supply
Ship recycling is another component of the proposed scrap strategy.
The draft says India handles approximately one-third of global end-of-life vessel tonnage and describes the country as the world's largest ship-recycling nation.
The government wants to modernize and expand domestic ship-recycling facilities while improving access to EU-flagged vessels.
The policy proposes technical cooperation and capacity building aimed at bringing more Indian recycling yards into compliance with European requirements.
Draft Says Scrap Should Remain Around 21% of Steel Production
The Ministry states that ferrous scrap currently contributes approximately 21% of India's crude steel output.
The draft says NSP Vision 2047 aims to maintain that approximately 21% share while substantially increasing the absolute tonnage of scrap consumed.
This means the 123 million-tonne projection is being driven mainly by the expected expansion of India's steel industry rather than by a stated target to make scrap a dramatically larger percentage of the overall steelmaking mix.
India Targets 604 Million Tonnes of Steel Capacity
The scrap projections sit within a much larger expansion of India's steel industry.
The official draft targets 604 million tonnes per year of crude steel capacity by 2047, compared with approximately 220 million tonnes in FY2025-26.
Finished-steel consumption is projected to reach 505 million tonnes, while per-capita consumption is expected to rise from approximately 116 kg today to 302 kg.
The policy also sets a target of 45 million tonnes of steel exports by 2047.
SteelPrices previously covered the government's pre-release capacity plans: India Plans Major Steel Capacity Expansion Through 2047 .
Iron Ore Demand Is Projected at 772 Million Tonnes
India's raw-material requirement will expand well beyond scrap.
The draft projects iron ore demand at 772 million tonnes by 2047, compared with approximately 299 million tonnes in the current baseline.
The Ministry says it will seek additional mine development, greater beneficiation and pelletization of lower-grade ore, and foreign asset acquisitions or joint ventures to secure access to high-grade resources.
The combination of higher iron ore and scrap requirements highlights the scale of raw-material growth needed to support India's planned steel expansion.
Scrap Is Part of India's Steel Decarbonization Strategy
Increasing ferrous scrap utilization also forms part of the draft's decarbonization framework.
The Ministry identifies greater scrap use alongside renewable electricity, energy efficiency, hydrogen-based steelmaking and carbon capture as tools for reducing the industry's carbon intensity.
India's steel-sector emissions intensity is currently estimated in the draft at 2.54 tonnes of CO? per tonne of crude steel.
The policy seeks to reduce that figure to 1.54 tonnes of CO? per tonne of crude steel by 2047, ahead of India's broader 2070 net-zero target.
Imported Scrap Access Remains a Separate Risk
Although the draft places greater emphasis on domestic scrap generation, India continues to rely on imported ferrous and non-ferrous scrap.
That trade is facing additional uncertainty from overseas waste-shipment policies.
The European Commission's current draft list of authorised non-OECD waste destinations does not include India for covered metal-waste exports from May 2027 if the proposal is adopted in its current form.
SteelPrices has detailed that issue separately: EU Draft Could Restrict Metal Scrap Exports to India .
What Does India's 2047 Scrap Plan Mean for the Steel Market?
The draft points to a significantly larger ferrous scrap market alongside India's planned steel-industry expansion.
Total scrap consumption would more than triple, but the government is not projecting a comparable increase in imported material.
Instead, the policy depends on a nearly fourfold increase in domestically generated scrap and a more formal collection, processing and recycling system.
For steelmakers, scrap processors and traders, the commercial importance will therefore depend not only on the 123 million-tonne headline target, but on whether India can build the collection infrastructure and processing capacity needed to supply 111 million tonnes domestically.
The projections remain part of a draft policy and may change before final adoption.
Primary source: Government of India, Ministry of Steel — Draft National Steel Policy: Vision 2047.
Additional reporting: Recykal Times; Reuters.