Iron ore prices in early July 2025 recovered to two-month highs. In particular, during the week of June 30–July 4, September iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) rose 2.3% to $102.2/t, while August contracts on the Singapore Exchange are valued at $96.15/t (+1.6%).
The price increase was supported by a combination of fundamental and speculative factors. A temporary decline in sea shipments, as well as active purchases by traders amid expectations of new stimulus measures from China, created positive momentum in the market. In the middle of the week, the results of the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission of the PRC, where intentions to combat excess steel capacity and ineffective competition were announced, also contributed to the growth.
After Beijing signaled its intention to reduce outdated production and improve product quality, traders began to expect a more stable demand structure for raw materials. This was also reflected in spot activity.
However, the situation remained ambiguous. In the first half of the week, prices fell slightly due to news of steel production restrictions in Shanxi and Tangshan provinces, key regions of the Chinese metallurgical industry. Although there was no official confirmation of the scale of the restrictions, the market reacted cautiously to these signals, which temporarily weighed on sentiment.
The spot market remained active, although it declined slightly at the end of the week. Analysts attribute this to the gradual fading of the effect of political news and expectations of an increase in port stocks due to the completion of quarterly shipments.
In the short term, prices may remain within the range of $95-100/t for standard 62% Fe ore, provided that high pig iron production volumes in China are maintained. However, medium-term risks are associated with seasonal weakness in construction demand and uncertainty about the duration of government support.
As reported by GMK Center, Moody’s expects iron ore prices to remain at $80-100/t over the next 12-18 months. This forecast is due to weak demand from China and high supply in the global market.
A similar view was expressed by analysts at BMI Country Risk and Industry Research. They maintain their forecast for the average annual price in 2025 at $100/t, although they acknowledge the pressure from weak demand.
