In July, regional markets saw a predominantly downward trend in slab prices. The key influencing factors remain weak export demand in many regions and US tariff policy.
The average export price of Brazilian slabs continued to decline in July, falling to $470/t from $482/t at the end of June (FOB terms). Brazilian slabs became cheaper amid expectations of the introduction of duties on Brazilian imports.
From August 7, the US will impose a cumulative 50% duty on goods produced in Brazil. The likelihood of this rate being revised now seems minimal, as the Brazilian authorities have taken an aggressive stance towards US trade attacks. At the same time, semi-finished products and finished steel from Brazil are already subject to a 50% US tariff under Section 232. It is likely that the duty on Brazilian steel imports to the US could now reach 100%.
This could complicate the situation in Brazil’s steel sector due to its high dependence on US consumers. In the first half of this year, Brazil exported 2.7 million tons of slabs to the US, compared to 4.3 million tons in 2024. The increase in duties will make slabs from other countries attractive to US consumers.
At the same time, the Brazilian steel sector has recently improved its performance. In June, the country’s steel production volume amounted to 2.8 million tons, which is 4.8% more than in May, but 0.5% less year-on-year. In June, Brazilian plants produced 730,000 tons of semi-finished products, of which 693,000 tons were slabs. Total semi-finished product production in June increased by 6.6% compared to May.
Average prices for slabs on FOB Black Sea terms in July (as of the 18th) rose by 2%, or $7.5, to $422.5/t. At the same time, the market itself remains very active. According to Kallanish, Turkey increased its slab imports by 40% y/y in June to 351,400 tons.
Traditionally, Russian slabs dominate the Turkish market (55% of imports), with imports in June rising by 55% year-on-year to 191,800 tons. However, compared to April, imports from Russia fell by 26.7%. The average price of slabs from Russia in June was $476/t, while the average cost of imports from other sources (Algeria, Malaysia) was $478/t.
In turn, average slab prices in Japan have remained at $470/t FOB since early April. In other Asian markets, slab prices are likely to stabilize after recent growth. According to SteelOrbis, Asian suppliers have increased their product supply over the past two weeks, despite insufficient demand.
