India’s domestic hot rolled and cold rolled coil prices rose sharply by INR 1,500-2,000/tonne ($16.7-22.3/t) week-on-week, supported by mill price hikes, firm end-user demand and rising raw material costs ahead of year-end holidays, market sources tell Kallanish.
Several major mills have raised prices by around INR 750-1,500/t over the past three to four days, with sources adding that further hikes are likely in January as mills seek to carry forward positive sentiment.
Distributors say the firmer tone is being underpinned by steady offtake from auto, appliances and infrastructure-linked end-user segments.
“There are mainly two reasons [for the sharp price increase] – improvement in demand and cost push,” a market participant says. Another concurs, noting that rising coking coal prices are contributing to the price rise.
One trader notes that there has been some asymmetric tightness in supply recently despite overall availability remaining adequate. However, a major producer counters that this is not a supply-driven issue, adding that mills are using the demand improvement as an opportunity to “increase prices and maintain positive sentiment in the market”.
According to ICRA, India’s steel demand is expected to grow at a “healthy” 8% rate year-on-year in the current fiscal year 2026.
November core industry data showed steel output growth outpacing the overall core sector expansion, highlighting steel’s improving contribution to industrial momentum (see separate article).
Infrastructure activity continues to lend underlying support. Recent rail and road project approvals under the PM GatiShakti programme are expected to sustain medium-term demand for long and flat steel products, particularly from rail-led construction (see separate article).
As of Tuesday, domestic HRC prices rose by INR 2,000-2,500/t w-o-w to INR 48,000-49,000/t delivered Mumbai for IS2062/E250 BR grade material.
CRC prices were up by INR 2,000/t to INR 55,500-56,500/t delivered Mumbai for IS513 Grade O. HR plate prices increased by INR 1,500-2,000/t to INR 50,00-50,500/t for E250/S235 base grades.
Galvanized coil prices edged up by INR 500/t to INR 60,500-61,500/t for 0.8mm-plus commercial grades, while colour-coated coil rose by INR 1,000/t to INR 69,500-70,500/t.
In the HRC import market, no fresh offers were heard for a second consecutive week, with buyers remaining cautious amid safeguard duty uncertainty. The earlier 200-day temporary 12% safeguard duty on select flat products expired on 6-7 November. While the DGTR recommended a phased three-year safeguard duty in August, the government has yet to issue an implementation notification, keeping procurement decisions on hold.
The last heard FTA-origin HRC offer was around $475/t cfr India.
China-origin HRC is assessed on a theoretical basis at $466/t fob or $490/t cfr Mumbai in the absence of firm offers, and assuming advance licence. CRC is $520/t fob or $544/t cfr as of Tuesday.
One importer adds that domestic prices are rising also as a result of China’s newly announced steel export licensing system, although analysts say its impact remains uncertain until initial customs clearances are tested.
Market participants expect domestic prices to rise by a further INR 500/t in the near term amid strong demand sentiment and anticipated additional mill hikes.
Source:Kallanish
