In January, average prices for Indian and Russian pig iron rose by $20–30 per tonne. This was due to increased demand in Turkey, the strengthening of the ruble, and the emergence of financial obligations within the CBAM for deliveries to the EU.
At the same time, according to Kallanish, prices for Brazilian pig iron stabilized at $410/ton FOB in January, although producers sought to dictate higher prices, expecting growth in demand from European buyers. However, demand from European consumers, who showed active interest in importing Brazilian pig iron at the end of 2024, was limited last month. Therefore, the main sales destination was the US.
At the same time, pig iron exports from Brazil continued to decline. In December, they fell by 23% month-on-month to 273,000 tons after falling by 23% month-on-month in November. The main reason for the decline was a 27% month-on-month decrease in exports to the US to 211,000 tons at a price of $392/ton on FOB terms. At the same time, Brazilian pig iron exports grew by 7.8% y/y over the past year to 4 million tons at an average price of $412/ton.
According to the Brazilian Steelmakers Association (IAB), pig iron production in Brazil is recovering: in December, output amounted to 2.2 million tons, which is 1.7% more than in November. At the same time, production decreased by 1% y/y to 26.2 million tons in 2025.
As expected, the introduction of CBAM has changed the structure of pig iron supplies to Italy, creating chaos and uncertainty throughout the industry. Thanks to low CBAM payments, Brazil is now the sole supplier of pig iron to Italy. Supplies from Ukraine, which were priced at $430/t (CFR) in December, became uncompetitive in January.
According to Kallanish, January prices for pig iron in Italy are approximately $30/t higher than in December. According to the latest data, prices at the end of January were recorded at $460–470/t on CFR Italy terms, excluding CBAM payments.
At the same time, mills and distributors are mostly refraining from purchases amid high prices. This is especially true since they purchased significant volumes at the end of 2024 to avoid additional CBAM costs. In particular, in December, Brazil shipped 60,000 tons of pig iron to Europe at a price of $389/t on FOB terms.
A similar situation is observed in the Black Sea pig iron market: average prices (on a Black Sea FOB basis) rose by $23 in January to $335/t. Prices for Russian billets in the Black Sea rose due to the strengthening of the ruble. To maintain profitability, Russian suppliers were forced to raise prices. At the same time, demand for such products is insufficient, as not all buyers are willing to accept the price increases.
Turkish steel mills are increasingly relying on Russian pig iron, for which Turkey has become the main market. Imports of pig iron from Russia to the EU have been banned since the beginning of this year, and the quota for 2025 was exhausted in February last year.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), pig iron imports to Turkey in 2025 amounted to 2.31 million tons (+54% y-o-y). Russia became the leading supplier, shipping 1.8 million tons (+83% y/y), increasing its share in total imports to 78%, compared to 66% in 2024.
Against the backdrop of growing imports, Turkey’s own pig iron production is declining. According to WorldSteel, last year’s output fell by 5% y/y to 9.7 million tons. At the same time, in December, production grew for the fifth consecutive month by 24% y/y to 930,000 tons, which somewhat offset the overall decline for the year.
In other regional markets, pig iron prices rose at different rates. Domestic prices for pig iron in China (including 13% VAT) rose by $7 to $415/t in January. According to Metallplace, quotations for pig iron on the Indian market jumped by $33 to $373/t last month. Indian suppliers raised their prices amid the emergence of CBAM payment costs in the EU and increased supplies to Turkey, where Indian cast iron accounted for 5% of the market last year with 110,000 tons (a threefold increase year-on-year). However, there is currently no evidence that European buyers are interested in Indian pig iron in the long term.
As previously reported, global pig iron production in 2025 decreased by 1.7% compared to the previous year, to 1.37 billion tons. The largest pig iron producing countries last year were: China – 836 million tons (-3% y/y), India – 154.4 million tons (+6.7% y/y), and Japan – 58.5 million tons (-4.2% y/y).
Courtesy : https://gmk.center/
