China Iron Ore Falls to $90.60/t as Q4 Supply Builds
China's benchmark 62% Fe iron ore price fell to $90.60/t CFR Qingdao on October 13 as post-holiday buying remained cautious, steel mill profitability stayed weak and expectations for stronger fourth-quarter seaborne supply limited price support.
- KORE 62% Fe: $91.31/t CFR Qingdao on October 12 and $90.60/t on October 13.
- Post-holiday buying: Imported ore trades averaged about 609,000 t/day over October 8-10.
- Trading slowdown: Port transactions were 32.2% below the comparable post-holiday period in 2025.
- Mill profitability: Only 6.93% of 247 surveyed blast-furnace mills were profitable as of October 9.
- Imports: China brought in 109.82 million tonnes of iron ore in September, up 1.2% M/M.
- Q4 outlook: Higher expected supply and weak steel margins are seen limiting upside, but lower prices remain a forecast rather than a confirmed outcome.
The pressure on iron ore is coming from a mismatch between ongoing steel production and weak purchasing appetite. Chinese blast furnaces are still consuming substantial ore volumes, but loss-making mills are avoiding aggressive restocking while seaborne material remains readily available. That keeps ore demand present but price-sensitive, leaving little room for a sustained rebound unless steel margins improve or supply tightens.
China's imported iron ore market weakened after the National Day holiday as mills returned to the physical market cautiously rather than launching a broad replenishment cycle.
According to Kallanish, the KORE 62% Fe/Qingdao benchmark stood at $91.31/t CFR on October 12, down 1.9% from October 2.
The benchmark fell further to $90.60/t CFR on October 13.
China Iron Ore Has Fallen About 10% From Early September
The October weakness extends the retreat that began after the benchmark moved above $100/t in early September.
| Date | KORE 62% Fe/Qingdao | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 4 | $100.80/t | CFR Qingdao |
| Sept. 25 | $96.60/t | CFR Qingdao |
| Oct. 12 | $91.31/t | CFR Qingdao |
| Oct. 13 | $90.60/t | CFR Qingdao |
From September 4 through October 13, the benchmark fell by $10.20/t, or approximately 10.1%.
For the earlier move, see China Iron Ore Falls Below $100/t as Demand Weakens .
Post-Holiday Buying Recovers Only Moderately
Imported iron ore prices weakened during October 8-10 as physical trading recovered only moderately following China's seven-day National Day holiday, according to Mysteel Global.
Steel mills had relied primarily on their own raw-material inventories during the break, but widespread post-holiday replenishment did not materialize.
Most mills were reported to be purchasing only enough ore to meet immediate production requirements.
Imported ore transactions at Chinese ports averaged approximately 609,000 tonnes per day over October 8-10.
That was 32.2% below the comparable first post-holiday trading period in 2025.
Only 6.93% of Surveyed Blast-Furnace Mills Were Profitable
Weak steelmaking margins provide an important explanation for cautious raw-material purchasing.
Mysteel's October 9 survey of 247 Chinese blast-furnace steelmakers showed a blast-furnace operating rate of 81.37% and ironmaking capacity utilization of 87.8%.
Average daily hot-metal output totaled approximately 2.338 million tonnes/day.
Only 6.93% of the surveyed mills were profitable, unchanged from the previous week.
Finished-steel inventories also accumulated during the holiday. Trader stocks of five major products rose 4.5% to 18.32 million tonnes.
See China Steel Inventories Rise 4.5% During National Day Holiday .
Port Iron Ore Inventories Rise After the Holiday
Mysteel's October 9 data also showed imported iron ore inventories increasing at Chinese ports.
Stocks across 47 monitored ports reached approximately 173.15 million tonnes, up 963,400 tonnes week over week.
The corresponding 45-port inventory reached approximately 164.80 million tonnes, an increase of 693,800 tonnes.
At the same time, imported ore inventories held by surveyed steel mills fell sharply to approximately 88.10 million tonnes following the holiday period.
China Imported 109.82 Million Tonnes of Iron Ore in September
China continued to receive substantial seaborne iron ore volumes ahead of the fourth quarter.
September imports totaled 109.82 million tonnes, up 1.2% month over month but down approximately 5.6% from September 2025.
January-September imports reached 954.97 million tonnes, up 4.1% year over year.
Rio Tinto Reports 85.7 Million Tonnes of Q3 Pilbara Sales
Fresh producer data provide additional evidence that seaborne iron ore supply remains substantial.
Rio Tinto reported 85.7 million tonnes of Pilbara iron ore sales in the third quarter of 2026, up 2% year over year.
Global iron ore sales reached 90.8 million tonnes, up 3% year over year.
Rio Tinto maintained its 2026 Pilbara iron ore sales guidance at 323-338 million tonnes.
The miner also reported that its Simandou operation in Guinea reached an annualized production run-rate of approximately 10 million tonnes per year during Q3 as the project continues to ramp up.
Analysts Expect Q4 Iron Ore Prices to Remain Under Pressure
Yongan Futures analysts cited by Bloomberg expect rising supply, weakening demand and higher inventories to become increasingly important price drivers during the fourth quarter.
Their outlook calls for iron ore prices to trend lower as major miners maintain high shipment volumes and Chinese steel profitability remains weak.
Subsequent Futures Trading Extends the Weakness
The market weakened further after the October 13 physical benchmark reported above.
On October 15, the benchmark November iron ore contract in Singapore traded near $89.85/t, its weakest level in more than two years, while China's most-traded Dalian iron ore contract fell to approximately Yuan 669/t.
Weaker Chinese Buying Is Affecting Indian Iron Ore Exports
Reduced Chinese purchasing has also been visible in trade flows from India.
Indian iron ore and pellet exports fell 67.2% month over month to 0.70 million tonnes in September, while shipments to China dropped from 1.63 million tonnes in August to 0.19 million tonnes.
India's decline also reflected its own domestic pricing and production conditions, so it should not be attributed entirely to Chinese demand.
See India Iron Ore, Pellet Exports Fall 67% to 4-Year Low .
What Is Driving China Iron Ore Prices Lower?
China's iron ore market has shifted from pre-holiday restocking toward a test of underlying steel-mill economics.
Blast furnaces continue operating at relatively high utilization rates, ensuring continued base demand for ore.
The difference is that weak profitability is keeping steelmakers cautious at the same time that port inventories and seaborne supply remain high.
That combination has pushed the physical 62% Fe benchmark toward $90/t CFR Qingdao and subsequently driven iron ore futures below $90/t.
The evidence therefore supports describing the market as under continued downward pressure, rather than concluding that Chinese iron ore demand has collapsed.
Primary physical-price source: Kallanish, as reported by GMK Center.
Post-holiday market and mill data: Mysteel Global / Mysteel.
Supply context: Rio Tinto Q3 2026 production and sales results.
Market outlook: Yongan Futures, as cited by Bloomberg.
Courtesy: GMK Center.
