In October, global hot-rolled coil (HRC) markets showed divergent trends. In the US, the shortage of spot supply intensified, affecting not only end users but also service centres. European producers are proposing significant price increases under contracts for the first half of 2027. In China, steel mills are trying to balance the market by cutting production.
Europe
During the first half of October, hot-rolled coil prices in Europe remained largely stable despite producers’ attempts to push through increases. In Northern Europe, the main transaction level was around €740/t EXW, with some deals reaching €760/t, while in Southern Europe prices fell by 4.5% to €655/t CIF over the period from 18 September to 16 October.
By 20 October, the situation had not changed significantly: in Italy and Northern Europe, workable prices were in the range of €740–750/t EXW. At the same time, producers have now stepped up their attempts to raise offers amid supply disruptions in Southern Europe, rising energy costs and the declining attractiveness of imports.
Overall, limited supply and more expensive energy support producers’ positions, but high inventories at consumers and weak demand are holding back a real increase in prices. An additional supporting factor for spot offers is the start of negotiations on long-term contracts for the first half of 2027. Market participants were also awaiting news from the leading industry exhibition Euroblech, held on 20–23 October in Hanover, as a number of players start discussing deals during this event.
According to Argus Media data, European flat steel producers are proposing to raise prices under contracts for the supply of steel to the automotive industry in the first half of 2027 by €100/t. Meanwhile, buyers are considering an increase of about €70/t. The negotiations are taking place against the backdrop of restrictions on steel imports into the EU and some growth in spot prices. At the same time, automotive component suppliers believe that a gradual ramp-up of steel production could increase pressure on prices if demand remains weak.
The Italian market continues to be affected by the situation at Acciaierie d’Italia. In early October, the company suspended production at the hot end of its Taranto plant. It was also announced that ADI’s plants in Genoa and Novi Ligure, which produce flat steel using coils from this facility, would halt operations until 15 November. It was later reported that the company’s extraordinary commissioners had reached agreements to secure raw materials for all three production sites. On 16 October, the Italian government issued a decree-law allowing the producer to keep the hot end heated in order to avoid potentially irreversible damage. On 20 October, the Court of Cassation postponed its ruling on Taranto. In addition, there were production problems at the Arvedi plant at the beginning of the month.
China
The Chinese HRC market remains under pressure. Demand after the national holiday is recovering more weakly than expected, while supply is high. Mills are starting to cut output due to low margins. Cheaper coking coal and coke are reducing producers’ costs, but the weak real estate sector makes the recovery in demand uncertain. In the short term, the production cuts that mills are already making by going into maintenance may ease pressure from the supply side.
During this period, Baosteel kept its domestic hot-rolled coil prices for November sales unchanged after raising its price offers for October by 200 yuan/t ($30/t) – the company has currently chosen this strategy in light of general trends.
Export prices declined for the fourth consecutive week on 12–16 October, due, among other things, to the fall in raw material prices (iron ore and coking coal), as well as low interest from foreign buyers.
According to Mysteel, during this period export offers for HRC from major Chinese state-owned mills were in the range of $495–505/t FOB China. Over the past month (18 September – 16 October), hot-rolled coil prices in China decreased by 0.4% to $510/t FOB. Analysts expect HRC prices in the country to fall to lower levels during the current month due to reduced demand and growing inventories.
USA
In the United States, the shortage of spot supply of flat steel continued in October. Mills have almost fully booked December and are reserving certain products for regular customers. As a result, service centres are forced to buy metal from each other at a premium, which is pushing up prices for hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils.
Since the middle of this month, the market has been forecasting that limited spot supply and long lead times will drive price increases at the beginning of next year as well. Demand currently remains stable, and consumers are willing to pay for flat steel at the upper end of the price range.
During contract negotiations for 2027, guaranteed supply volumes have become the main issue for buyers. Due to market constraints, mills cannot offer much, so customers are considering agreeing to higher prices in order to close deals faster. However, some market participants believe, citing similar trends in the past, that the situation will eventually change and steel mills will then have to accommodate buyers.
Over the period from 18 September to 16 October, HRC prices in the United States rose by 4.5% to $1,389/t EXW.
As GMK Center reported earlier, the global hot-rolled coil market showed mixed trends in September 2026. In the United States, prices rose steadily due to limited spot supply and longer lead times. European producers were determined to raise prices, while in China the expected seasonal upturn remained uncertain.
Courtesy: https://gmk.center/en/
