Global prices for hot-rolled coil (HRC) rose in most key regions in March 2026 – by 1-6% month-over-month. By the end of the first quarter, the market showed a noticeable recovery: current offers exceed late-2025 levels by 3-15%. At the same time, the weakest performance, as before, was recorded in China.
EU
The European market was the main driver behind the March increase. In Western Europe, between February 27 and March 27, HRC prices rose by 5.9% to €715/t ex-works, reaching their highest level since March 2024. In Italy, prices rose 5.8% month-on-month to €685/t ex-works, while import offers in Southern Europe rose 2.9% – to €530/t CIF, which is also close to annual highs.
The increase was primarily due to limited supply. European producers consistently pushed for new price benchmarks, citing production disruptions at mills in Spain and France, reduced product availability in Southern Europe, as well as tighter supply of cold-rolled coils and galvanized sheet. An additional factor was the lengthening of delivery times, which strengthened the mills’ negotiating positions.
At the same time, demand did not provide the market with sufficient support. Service centers and distributors primarily operated using existing inventories and entered the market only for spot purchases. Some consumers had already built up inventories in 2025 in anticipation of CBAM, so even the latest price increases were not accompanied by a significant uptick in actual consumption.
The import factor also weakened its role as a tool for price pressure. Buyer sentiment was influenced by uncertainty surrounding the CBAM, the exhaustion of Turkish quotas, the expected introduction of a new protective regime starting in July, as well as rising costs for energy, logistics, and freight. In the near term, the European market is likely to remain relatively stable, but the potential for further growth appears limited due to weak demand and significant inventories in the supply chain.
United States
The U.S. market continued its upward trend in March, although the underlying logic was somewhat different. Prices for hot-rolled coil rose by 3.3% over the month to $1,118.8/t — the highest level since February 2024. Current prices are already 17.9% above the 2025 average and 9.7% higher than the figure at the end of last year.
The key factor here remained the actions of producers. First and foremost, the market was guided by Nucor’s ten consecutive weekly price hikes, which effectively established a new baseline for price negotiations. At the same time, market support was provided by restrictions on spot sales by some producers, difficulties in securing raw materials at certain plants, and delivery delays. This was particularly noticeable in the cold-rolled coil and coated sheet segments, where shipment lead times lengthened even more significantly.
At the same time, domestic demand in the U.S. appeared more resilient than in Europe. Distributors reported relatively brisk business, active utilization of production capacity, and restocking by service centers. This allowed the market to accept new price levels more readily.
The import situation provided a separate source of support. High domestic prices theoretically made foreign supplies attractive, but in practice, competitive pressure remained limited due to the conflict in the Middle East, rising freight costs, logistics disruptions, and uncertainty regarding shipment arrival times. In the short term, the upward trend is likely to continue, although the market may enter a phase of slower growth if buyers begin to react more cautiously to new price increases.
China
Throughout the period, the Chinese HRC market remained the least dynamic among the major regions. Monthly growth amounted to just 1%, and export prices reached $485/t FOB. This level was last seen at the end of October last year.
Unlike the EU and the US, the Chinese market lacked sufficient domestic momentum for a more confident recovery. After the holidays, demand recovery was slow, and oversupply in certain regions continued to weigh on prices. In the eastern part of the country, particularly in the Shanghai area, inventories remained high due to an active influx of products from the north, which limited the potential for price increases.
Some positive momentum came from adjacent markets. Rising prices for iron ore, coking coal, and oil, as well as periodic gains in futures, improved market sentiment. However, this impact was largely short-lived and did not alter the overall picture, as end-user demand remained weak.
Exports also failed to provide full support. While the strengthening of the yuan helped prices at the beginning of the period, other factors came to the fore later on: sluggish buyer activity, a sharp rise in freight rates, and logistical risks associated with the conflict in the Middle East. Some suppliers attempted to redirect sales to South and Southeast Asia, but concluding new deals proved difficult.
Most likely, the Chinese market will remain within a narrow price range in the near future. Support may come from raw material factors and a gradual reduction in inventories, but weak consumption and the difficult situation in export markets will continue to hold back upward movement.
Courtesy : https://gmk.center/en
