ArcelorMittal, one of Europe’s leading steel producers, has raised its base price for hot-rolled coil (HRC) to €610/t delivered for fourth-quarter shipments. This is the second price increase in a short period of time – at the end of July, the company set the price at €590/t, which is currently also applied in Spain and Italy.
The futures market has been anticipating price increases for several weeks: HRC offers in Northern Europe for December were trading at €608/t, and for September in the range of €580-583/t. Against the backdrop of declining activity in the summer, most mills lowered prices to fill their order books. In June, the average transaction price in Northwest Europe fell to €533/t, although some players still have access to such levels.
However, on August 5, two major producers reported sales at €570-590/t. The market is expected to pick up after the summer holidays, especially given the potential tightening of import restrictions. In particular, a new protective mechanism proposed by the European Commission at the initiative of France and with the support of EUROFER may come into force in January 2026. Import quotas may be reduced and anti-dumping duties may reach 50%.
In addition, the new carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) is already affecting pricing. Imported rolled steel with high carbon content is expected to become significantly more expensive, reducing the attractiveness of supplies from Asia. At the same time, import prices in Italy are rising – to €507.5/t at the beginning of August compared to €470/t in mid-July. In addition, the market expects demand to pick up in Germany following the trade agreement with the US.
As GMK Center reported earlier, in July, the European HRC market remained weak, showing an overall decline in prices of 2-6% depending on the region. In Western Europe, quotations fell to €545/t Ex-works, in Italy – to €525/t, and import prices in Southern Europe fell to €465/t CIF.
Excessive supply from Asia at prices of €450-490/t did not generate active demand. Only at the end of the month were there signs of recovery, with service centers beginning to build up stocks for the fall. On July 23, ArcelorMittal attempted to reverse the trend by raising prices to €590/t, but the market reacted without enthusiasm.
